- The Twins (73-74) are -115 favorites vs the Royals (58-89)
- Twins starting pitcher: Dylan Bundy (8-7), 4.67 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke (4-9), 4.09 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Minnesota Twins (-115) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-105) on Tuesday, September 20, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Twins vs Royals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 73-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 69-74 ATS.
Twins vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +140 | O 9 +100 | -115 |
| Royals | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -120 | -105 |
Twins vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Tuesday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 40 games (+14.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 44 away games (+10.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 26% ROI)
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 29 games at home (+17.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 42 games (+16.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 66 of his last 103 games (+14.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.20 Units / 42% ROI)
- Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.15 Units / 38% ROI)
Royals vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Drew Waters | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Michael Massey | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Royals vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Drew Waters | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Michael Massey | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
Royals vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Drew Waters | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Michael Massey | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
Royals vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Greinke | 2.5 -155 | 2.5 +105 |
| Dylan Bundy | 2.5 -140 | 2.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 53 games (+5.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 48 games (+4.45 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+0.80 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+3.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games at home (+1.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 17 games at home (+0.95 Units / 5% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 67-77 against the Run Line (-14.4 Units / -8.18% ROI).
- 73-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.4 Units / -3.87% ROI
- 69-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -1.64% ROI
- 66-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.3 Units / -6.41% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 69-74 against the Run Line (-17.35 Units / -9.29% ROI).
- 58-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.55 Units / -10.15% ROI
- 72-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -1.59% ROI
- 68-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.85 Units / -7.42% ROI
Dylan Bundy: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 70% of Dylan Bundy’s pitches (375/533) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Bundy has a strike rate of 74% (394/533) in two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Bundy has a strike rate of 72% (682/945) in two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 153 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Bundy has struck out just 11% (26/234) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.
Donald Greinke: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Greinke has averaged 71.5 MPH on curveballs since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 79.2 — fourth Percentile.
Zack Greinke has a strikeout rate of just 27% (67 SO in 250 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 0 Percentile.
Zack Greinke has averaged 89.2 MPH on fastballs this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — fourth Percentile.
Zack Greinke has thrown his changeup for a strike just 49% (166/339) of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are just 9-32 (.220) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.
The Twins are just 4-11 (.267) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 62-7 (.899) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Twins are just 10-38 (.208) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 4-37 (.098) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.
The Royals are just 24-48 (.333) on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .472.
The Royals are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are just 34-41 (.453) at home this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .599 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Twins hitters have 43 strikeouts in 131 PA’s (33%) with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Twins have an average HR distance of 404.6 feet since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.4.
Twins hitters have 173 extra-base hits out of 426 total hits (41%) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .984 (2,191 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Royals hitters are slugging just .293 over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Royals hitters have just 618 strikeouts in 3,129 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters are slugging just .235 with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have walked 1,132 of 11,802 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have walked 1,343 of 14,035 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Royals vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
- Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kyle Garlick (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Sandy León (Twins): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Christopher Archer (Twins): Pectoral, D15
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Sonny Gray (Twins): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Megill (Twins): COVID-19, D10
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D60
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