Twins vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 21

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 21, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Twins (73-75) are -130 favorites vs the Royals (59-89)
  • Twins starting pitcher: John Ober (1-2), 3.49 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Daniel A. Lynch (4-11), 5.15 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSKC

The Minnesota Twins (-130) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+105) on Wednesday, September 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Twins vs Royals Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Twins are 73-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 70-74 ATS.

Twins vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins-1.5 +135O 7.5 -110-130
Royals +1.5 -160U 7.5 -110+105

Twins vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 58.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 41 games (+15.90 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.20 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 36 of his last 59 games (+9.45 Units / 13% ROI)

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 30 games at home (+16.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 43 games (+15.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 67 of his last 104 games (+15.15 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.20 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.15 Units / 38% ROI)

Royals vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Edward Olivares 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
MJ Melendez 0.5 +400 0.5 -800
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
Michael Massey 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200

Royals vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Edward Olivares 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
MJ Melendez 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Michael Massey 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Royals vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Edward Olivares 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
MJ Melendez 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Michael Massey 0.5 +200 0.5 -300

Royals vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Daniel Lynch 4.5 +110 4.5 -155
Bailey Ober 3.5 -150 3.5 +105
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 65 away games (+10.65 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 15 of their last 26 games (+5.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 54 games (+4.50 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.10 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+12.85 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 38 games at home (+8.95 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 57 games at home (+6.95 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+6.70 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 38 of their last 72 games at home (+6.50 Units / 8% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 67-78 against the Run Line (-15.4 Units / -8.7% ROI).

  • 73-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.55 Units / -4.44% ROI
  • 69-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -1.62% ROI
  • 66-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.3 Units / -6.37% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 70-74 against the Run Line (-16.35 Units / -8.68% ROI).

  • 59-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.55 Units / -9.43% ROI
  • 72-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -1.57% ROI
  • 68-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.85 Units / -7.38% ROI

Bailey Ober has not allowed a HR in any of his last five starts dating back to April 28th — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 12.

Bailey Ober has not allowed a home run in any of the last 23.2 innings he’s appeared — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 65.0.

Daniel A. Lynch: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Daniel Lynch has allowed an OPS of .867 (235 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: .622 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (43/131) against Daniel Lynch with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

The average home run distance against Daniel Lynch since the start of last season is 413.0 feet — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 399.1

Daniel Lynch has allowed an OBP of .372 (234 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: .276 — 0 Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Twins are just 15-28 (.349) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 62-7 (.899) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Twins are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 8-52 (.133) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .199.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Royals are just 4-37 (.098) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.

The Royals are just 24-48 (.333) on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .473.

The Royals are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Royals are just 3-71 (.041) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

Twins hitters have pulled 48% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Twins hitters have 36 extra-base hits out of 134 total hits (just 27%) against RHP this month (19 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

The Twins have 736 barreled balls since the start of last season — 3rd most in MLB.

The Twins have an average HR distance of 404.6 feet since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.4.

Royals hitters have an OPS of just .988 (2,195 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.

The Royals have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Royals hitters have drawn 229 walks in 3,134 PA’s (7%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Royals hitters have just 621 strikeouts in 3,134 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Twins pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 141 times since the start of last season — 5th most in MLB.

The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .293 against Royals pitchers this month (17 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: .228.

Royals pitchers have walked 1,132 of 11,840 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Royals vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
  • Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Kyle Garlick (Twins): Wrist, D10
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
  • Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Wrist, D10
  • Christopher Archer (Twins): Pectoral, D15
  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
  • Sonny Gray (Twins): Hamstring, D15
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.