- The Twins (73-76) are -125 favorites vs the Royals (60-89)
- Twins starting pitcher: Josh Winder (4-4), 4.16 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Jonathan Heasley (3-8), 5.09 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Minnesota Twins (-125) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+105) on Thursday, September 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Twins vs Royals Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 73-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 72-75 ATS.
Twins vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +135 | O 8 -105 | -125 |
| Royals | +1.5 -160 | U 8 -115 | +105 |
Twins vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 42 games (+16.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+10.30 Units / 51% ROI)
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 31 games at home (+17.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+16.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 67 of his last 105 games (+13.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Over in 21 of his last 34 games at home (+10.75 Units / 31% ROI)
Royals vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Drew Waters | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Edward Olivares | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Kyle Isbel | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Royals vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -275 |
| Drew Waters | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Edward Olivares | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Kyle Isbel | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
Royals vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Drew Waters | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Edward Olivares | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kyle Isbel | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Royals vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Heasley | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -145 |
| Josh Winder | 2.5 -175 | 2.5 +120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+6.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 55 games (+3.50 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games at home (+3.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.30 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.10 Units / 22% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 67-80 against the Run Line (-17.4 Units / -9.72% ROI).
- 73-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.8 Units / -6.03% ROI
- 69-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -2.26% ROI
- 67-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.3 Units / -5.71% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 72-75 against the Run Line (-15.6 Units / -8.11% ROI).
- 60-88 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.3 Units / -9.73% ROI
- 73-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -1.55% ROI
- 69-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.9 Units / -7.31% ROI
Josh Winder: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 41 ABs ending on a two-strike slider from Josh Winder. — Spencer Strider has the longest active streak at 42.
Josh Winder has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to July 12nd — Josiah Gray has the longest active streak at 13.
Josh Winder has allowed a slugging percentage of .600 (21 Total Bases / 35 ABs) this month (2 games) — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .404 — fifth Percentile.
Josh Winder has allowed an OPS of .942 (38 PA’s) this month (2 games) — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .706 — eighth Percentile.
Jonathan Heasley: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jon Heasley has a strike rate of just 57% (452/799) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Jon Heasley has a first-pitch strike rate of just 47% (34/73) this month (3 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 20% (83/413) against Jon Heasley this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 28% — third Percentile.
Jon Heasley has a strike rate of just 58% (212/364) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 62-7 (.899) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Twins are just 9-33 (.214) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.
The Twins are just 6-10 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 4-37 (.098) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.
The Royals are just 24-48 (.333) on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .473.
The Royals are just 45-5 (.900) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Royals are just 3-71 (.041) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .262 (160 PA’s) against LHP this month (13 games) — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .304.
Twins hitters have 36 extra-base hits out of 135 total hits (just 27%) against RHP this month (20 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Twins hitters have drawn 7 walks in 160 PA’s (4%) against LHP this month (13 games) — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Twins have barrels in 6% of PA’s since the start of last season (744/11,624) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .991 (2,204 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.
Royals hitters are slugging just .395 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .450.
Royals hitters have just 621 strikeouts in 3,134 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .304 (1,436 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Royals pitchers have walked 239 of 2,729 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
- Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kyle Garlick (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Christopher Archer (Twins): Pectoral, D15
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Sonny Gray (Twins): Hamstring, D15
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D60
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