Twins vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 22

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 22, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Twins (73-76) are -125 favorites vs the Royals (60-89)
  • Twins starting pitcher: Josh Winder (4-4), 4.16 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Jonathan Heasley (3-8), 5.09 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Minnesota Twins (-125) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+105) on Thursday, September 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Twins vs Royals Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Twins are 73-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 72-75 ATS.

Twins vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins-1.5 +135O 8 -105-125
Royals +1.5 -160U 8 -115+105

Twins vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 42 games (+16.90 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.20 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+10.30 Units / 51% ROI)

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 31 games at home (+17.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+16.60 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.20 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 67 of his last 105 games (+13.50 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Over in 21 of his last 34 games at home (+10.75 Units / 31% ROI)

Royals vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Drew Waters 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
Edward Olivares 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Kyle Isbel 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
MJ Melendez 0.5 +450 0.5 -900

Royals vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 +190 1.5 -275
Drew Waters 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Edward Olivares 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Kyle Isbel 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
MJ Melendez 0.5 -175 0.5 +120

Royals vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Drew Waters 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Edward Olivares 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Kyle Isbel 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
MJ Melendez 0.5 +200 0.5 -300

Royals vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jon Heasley 3.5 +105 3.5 -145
Josh Winder 2.5 -175 2.5 +120
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+6.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 55 games (+3.50 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games at home (+3.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.30 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.10 Units / 22% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 67-80 against the Run Line (-17.4 Units / -9.72% ROI).

  • 73-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.8 Units / -6.03% ROI
  • 69-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -2.26% ROI
  • 67-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.3 Units / -5.71% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 72-75 against the Run Line (-15.6 Units / -8.11% ROI).

  • 60-88 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.3 Units / -9.73% ROI
  • 73-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -1.55% ROI
  • 69-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.9 Units / -7.31% ROI

Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 41 ABs ending on a two-strike slider from Josh Winder. — Spencer Strider has the longest active streak at 42.

Josh Winder has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to July 12nd — Josiah Gray has the longest active streak at 13.

Josh Winder has allowed a slugging percentage of .600 (21 Total Bases / 35 ABs) this month (2 games) — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .404 — fifth Percentile.

Josh Winder has allowed an OPS of .942 (38 PA’s) this month (2 games) — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .706 — eighth Percentile.

Jonathan Heasley: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jon Heasley has a strike rate of just 57% (452/799) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.

Jon Heasley has a first-pitch strike rate of just 47% (34/73) this month (3 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 20% (83/413) against Jon Heasley this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 28% — third Percentile.

Jon Heasley has a strike rate of just 58% (212/364) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Twins are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 62-7 (.899) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Twins are just 9-33 (.214) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.

The Twins are just 6-10 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Royals are just 4-37 (.098) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.

The Royals are just 24-48 (.333) on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .473.

The Royals are just 45-5 (.900) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Royals are just 3-71 (.041) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

Twins hitters have an OBP of just .262 (160 PA’s) against LHP this month (13 games) — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .304.

Twins hitters have 36 extra-base hits out of 135 total hits (just 27%) against RHP this month (20 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Twins hitters have drawn 7 walks in 160 PA’s (4%) against LHP this month (13 games) — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Twins have barrels in 6% of PA’s since the start of last season (744/11,624) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.

Royals hitters have an OPS of just .991 (2,204 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.

Royals hitters are slugging just .395 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .450.

Royals hitters have just 621 strikeouts in 3,134 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters have an OBP of just .304 (1,436 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Royals pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.

Royals pitchers have walked 239 of 2,729 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Royals vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
  • Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Kyle Garlick (Twins): Wrist, D10
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
  • Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Wrist, D10
  • Christopher Archer (Twins): Pectoral, D15
  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
  • Sonny Gray (Twins): Hamstring, D15
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.