- The Twins (50-44) are -175 favorites vs the Tigers (38-56)
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan (6-3), 2.98 ERA
- Tigers starting pitcher: Michael Pineda (2-5), 5.21 ERA
- Watch the game on BSDET
The Minnesota Twins (-175) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (+145) on Saturday, July 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Detroit.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Twins vs Tigers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 50-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 44-50 ATS.
Twins vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 -105 | O 8.5 +100 | -175 |
| Tigers | +1.5 -115 | U 8.5 -120 | +145 |
Twins vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s matchup with 53.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Gilberto Celestino has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Gilberto Celestino has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+9.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 36 games (+9.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+9.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Miguel Cabrera has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+9.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+9.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- Miguel Cabrera has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.05 Units / 68% ROI)
- Austin Meadows has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 58% ROI)
Tigers vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Akil Baddoo | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Harold Castro | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Tigers vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Akil Baddoo | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Harold Castro | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Tigers vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
| Akil Baddoo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Harold Castro | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
Tigers vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Pineda | 2.5 -135 | 2.5 -105 |
| Joe Ryan | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -130 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 43 of their last 77 games (+9.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 37 away games (+6.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 51 of their last 92 games (+5.75 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 82 games (+5.05 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 31 away games (+4.25 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Tigers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 91 games (+19.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games (+13.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+8.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.00 Units / 47% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 42-52 against the Run Line (-11.85 Units / -10.46% ROI).
- 50-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.2% ROI
- 43-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.4 Units / -4.28% ROI
- 44-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.5 Units / -3.35% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 44-50 against the Run Line (-13.9 Units / -11.58% ROI).
- 38-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -8.74% ROI
- 34-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.7 Units / -24.94% ROI
- 55-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +18 Units / 17.26% ROI
Joseph Ryan: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 12% (16/132) against Joe Ryan with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (63/213) against Joe Ryan this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 30% (33/110) against Joe Ryan this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (25/82) against Joe Ryan in two-strike counts this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Michael Pineda: Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Pineda has allowed a slugging percentage of .675 (52 Total Bases / 77 ABs) this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .373 — first Percentile.
Michael Pineda has allowed an OPS of 1.132 (38 PA’s) against right-handed batters this month (4 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .689 — second Percentile.
Michael Pineda has allowed a slugging percentage of .711 (27 Total Bases / 38 ABs) against right-handed batters this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .389 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .364 (28-for-77) against Michael Pineda this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — first Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Twins are just 5-6 (.455) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 44-13 (.772) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Twins are just 3-8 (.273) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 14-115 (.109) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .126.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Tigers are just 3-20 (.130) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
The Tigers are just 4-26 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .285.
The Tigers are just 38-48 (.442) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Tigers are just 16-32 (.333) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .479.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .547 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .442.
Twins hitters have 48 extra-base hits out of 96 total hits (50%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Twins hitters are slugging just .290 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (8 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .742 (3,545 PA’s) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .590 (2,498 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .580 (1,721 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .267 (1,721 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .316 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 10% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (8 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.3 MPH since the start of last season (6,509 balls in play) — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 5% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% this month (20 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Tigers vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Achilles , D10
- Wily Peralta (Tigers): Hamstring, D15
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Rony García (Tigers): Right Shoulder, D15
- Beau Brieske (Tigers): Forearm, D15
- Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Hamstring, D15
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
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