Twins vs Tigers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 30

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Twins (76-80) are -160 favorites vs the Tigers (63-92)
  • Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan (12-8), 3.70 ERA
  • Tigers starting pitcher: Tyler Alexander (4-10), 4.68 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSDET

The Minnesota Twins (-160) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (+135) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Detroit.

The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Twins vs Tigers Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Twins are 76-80 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 74-81 ATS.

Twins vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins-1.5 +110O 7 -105-160
Tigers +1.5 -135U 7 -115+135

Twins vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Friday‘s matchup with 58.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.20 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 46 games (+13.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 46% ROI)

Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Miguel Cabrera has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.95 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Javier Baez has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+9.70 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Tucker Barnhart has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.25 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Riley Greene has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+9.25 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.10 Units / 28% ROI)

Tigers vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Akil Baddoo 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Harold Castro 0.5 +900 0.5 -5000
Javier Baez 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Miguel Cabrera 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Riley Greene 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000

Tigers vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Akil Baddoo 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Harold Castro 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Javier Baez 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Miguel Cabrera 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Riley Greene 0.5 -175 0.5 +120

Tigers vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Akil Baddoo 0.5 +310 0.5 -550
Harold Castro 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Javier Baez 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Miguel Cabrera 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Riley Greene 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Tigers vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Alexander 3.5 +100 3.5 -145
Joe Ryan 5.5 -145 5.5 +105
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 67 away games (+8.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.20 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 11 of their last 21 away games (+2.40 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+4.80 Units / 11% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 72-84 against the Run Line (-16.7 Units / -8.71% ROI).

  • 76-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.6 Units / -7.12% ROI
  • 72-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.6 Units / -4.43% ROI
  • 73-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.45 Units / -3.74% ROI

Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 74-81 against the Run Line (-18.15 Units / -9.28% ROI).

  • 63-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.65 Units / -4.69% ROI
  • 60-83 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.8 Units / -17.96% ROI
  • 83-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.05 Units / 10.6% ROI

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (110/381) against Joe Ryan this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (45/151) against Joe Ryan in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 28% (65/236) against Joe Ryan since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (129/446) against Joe Ryan since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

Tyler Alexander: Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 16% (85/530) against Tyler Alexander this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.

Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit .369 against Tyler Alexander this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .256 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .365 (27-for-74) against Tyler Alexander with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .247 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (24/170) against Tyler Alexander with runners in scoring position this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers

The Twins are just 6-58 (.094) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Twins are just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Twins are just 4-13 (.235) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are 68-25 (.731) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Tigers are just 6-64 (.086) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.

The Tigers are just 7-31 (.184) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Tigers are just 43-8 (.843) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Tigers are 13-0 (1.000) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .803.

Twins hitters have an OBP of .320 (4,202 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Twins hitters have 47 extra-base hits out of 175 total hits (just 27%) against RHP this month (27 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Twins hitters have pulled 48% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Twins hitters are slugging just .348 against RHP this month (27 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .277 (4,155 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .606 (4,155 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Tigers hitters are slugging just .329 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.

Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .290 (8,386 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

The Twins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Tigers vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Rony García (Tigers): Bicep, D60
  • Joe Jiménez (Tigers): Back, D15
  • Tarik Skubal (Tigers): Arm, D60
  • Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Willi Castro (Tigers): Hamstring, D10
  • Austin Meadows (Tigers): Mental Health, D60
  • Matthew Manning (Tigers): Forearm, D60
  • Kerry Carpenter (Tigers): Back, D10
  • Beau Brieske (Tigers): Forearm, D60
  • Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
  • Kyle Garlick (Twins): Wrist, D10
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
  • Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Wrist, D10
  • Christopher Archer (Twins): Pectoral, D15
  • Sandy León (Twins): Knee, D10
  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
  • Sonny Gray (Twins): Hamstring, D15
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.