- The Twins (76-80) are -160 favorites vs the Tigers (63-92)
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan (12-8), 3.70 ERA
- Tigers starting pitcher: Tyler Alexander (4-10), 4.68 ERA
- Watch the game on BSDET
The Minnesota Twins (-160) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (+135) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Detroit.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Twins vs Tigers Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 76-80 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 74-81 ATS.
Twins vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +110 | O 7 -105 | -160 |
| Tigers | +1.5 -135 | U 7 -115 | +135 |
Twins vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Friday‘s matchup with 58.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 46 games (+13.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 46% ROI)
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Miguel Cabrera has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+9.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Tucker Barnhart has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+9.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.10 Units / 28% ROI)
Tigers vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Akil Baddoo | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Harold Castro | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Tigers vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Akil Baddoo | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Harold Castro | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
Tigers vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Akil Baddoo | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Harold Castro | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Tigers vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Alexander | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -145 |
| Joe Ryan | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 67 away games (+8.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.20 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 11 of their last 21 away games (+2.40 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Tigers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+4.80 Units / 11% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 72-84 against the Run Line (-16.7 Units / -8.71% ROI).
- 76-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.6 Units / -7.12% ROI
- 72-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.6 Units / -4.43% ROI
- 73-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.45 Units / -3.74% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 74-81 against the Run Line (-18.15 Units / -9.28% ROI).
- 63-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.65 Units / -4.69% ROI
- 60-83 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.8 Units / -17.96% ROI
- 83-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.05 Units / 10.6% ROI
Joseph Ryan: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (110/381) against Joe Ryan this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (45/151) against Joe Ryan in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 28% (65/236) against Joe Ryan since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (129/446) against Joe Ryan since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Tyler Alexander: Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 16% (85/530) against Tyler Alexander this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit .369 against Tyler Alexander this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .256 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .365 (27-for-74) against Tyler Alexander with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .247 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (24/170) against Tyler Alexander with runners in scoring position this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Twins are just 6-58 (.094) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Twins are just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Twins are just 4-13 (.235) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 68-25 (.731) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Tigers are just 6-64 (.086) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Tigers are just 7-31 (.184) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Tigers are just 43-8 (.843) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Tigers are 13-0 (1.000) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OBP of .320 (4,202 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Twins hitters have 47 extra-base hits out of 175 total hits (just 27%) against RHP this month (27 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Twins hitters have pulled 48% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Twins hitters are slugging just .348 against RHP this month (27 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .277 (4,155 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .606 (4,155 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .329 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .290 (8,386 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Twins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Tigers vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Rony García (Tigers): Bicep, D60
- Joe Jiménez (Tigers): Back, D15
- Tarik Skubal (Tigers): Arm, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Willi Castro (Tigers): Hamstring, D10
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Mental Health, D60
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Forearm, D60
- Kerry Carpenter (Tigers): Back, D10
- Beau Brieske (Tigers): Forearm, D60
- Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Kyle Garlick (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Christopher Archer (Twins): Pectoral, D15
- Sandy León (Twins): Knee, D10
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Sonny Gray (Twins): Hamstring, D15
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
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