- The White Sox (38-39) are -130 favorites vs the Twins (45-37)
- Twins starting pitcher: Dylan Bundy (4-4), 4.70 ERA
- White Sox starting pitcher: Johnny Cueto (2-4), 3.33 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-CHI
The Minnesota Twins (+110) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (-130) on Monday, July 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Chicago.
The White Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Twins vs White Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 45-37 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 37-40 ATS.
Twins vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -175 | O 9 +100 | +110 |
| White Sox | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -120 | -130 |
Twins vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the White Sox will win Monday‘s matchup with 60.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 77% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+5.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 11 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+4.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+3.90 Units / 27% ROI)
Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Abreu has hit the RBIs Under in 32 of his last 37 games at home (+21.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 36 games (+13.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+12.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 36 games (+8.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Seby Zavala has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+5.25 Units / 105% ROI)
White Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| A.J. Pollock | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
| Josh Harrison | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
White Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| A.J. Pollock | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -300 | 0.5 +195 |
| Josh Harrison | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
White Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| A.J. Pollock | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -155 |
| Josh Harrison | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
White Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Johnny Cueto | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -175 |
| Dylan Bundy | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -145 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 80 games (+8.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 70 games (+8.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 games (+5.15 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the White Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+10.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+6.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.75 Units / 75% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.70 Units / 14% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 36-46 against the Run Line (-11.55 Units / -11.98% ROI).
- 45-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.55 Units / 3.15% ROI
- 36-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.3 Units / -9.25% ROI
- 41-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.15 Units / 1.26% ROI
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 37-40 against the Run Line (-4.5 Units / -4.71% ROI).
- 38-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -6 Units / -6.21% ROI
- 37-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -3.27% ROI
- 37-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -4.2% ROI
Dylan Bundy: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 37% of Dylan Bundy’s breaking pitches (306/829) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Dylan Bundy has walked 4 of 119 left-handed batters (3%) this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 97th Percentile.
Dylan Bundy has averaged 89.4 MPH on fastballs this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 93.3 — sixth Percentile.
Dylan Bundy has struck out just 13% (15/119) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 22% — seventh Percentile.
Johnny Cueto: White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Johnny Cueto has allowed a slugging percentage of .800 (16 Total Bases / 20 ABs) vs left-handed batters — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .394 — fifth Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .300 (6-for-20) against Johnny Cueto — 8th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .227 — 13th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (48/254) against Johnny Cueto on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 26% — eighth Percentile.
Johnny Cueto has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 12 innings — Cristian Javier has the longest active streak at 19.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Twins are 40-13 (.755) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Twins are 4-25 (.138) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .106.
The Twins are 3-26 (.103) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .080.
The Twins are just 2-7 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The White Sox are 5-1 (.833) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The White Sox are just 2-21 (.087) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.
The White Sox are 73-13 (.849) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The White Sox are just 2-33 (.057) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .106.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have just 9 strikeouts in 64 PA’s (14%) against LHP over the last 14 days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins are batting .250 with two outs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Twins hitters are slugging .538 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Twins hitters have just 36 strikeouts in 239 PA’s (15%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .311 (48 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .656.
White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .424 (245 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .656.
The White Sox are batting .395 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .337.
White Sox hitters are slugging just .200 in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .354.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 37% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Twins pitchers over the last 14 days (14 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against White Sox pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
White Sox pitchers have walked 287 of 2,973 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The average home run distance against the White Sox pitchers since the start of last season is 393.9 feet — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9
White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
White Sox vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Liam Hendriks (White Sox): Arm, D15
- Yasmani Grandal (White Sox): Back, D10
- Kyle Crick (White Sox): Elbow, D15
- Jonathan Stiever (White Sox): Lat, D60
- Eloy Jiménez (White Sox): Hamstring, D60
- Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Bummer (White Sox): Lat, D15
- Adam Engel (White Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Daniel Mendick (White Sox): ACL, D10
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Trevor Megill (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, Day-to-Day
- Joseph Smith (Twins): Trap, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
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