Twins vs White Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 04, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The White Sox (38-39) are -130 favorites vs the Twins (45-37)
  • Twins starting pitcher: Dylan Bundy (4-4), 4.70 ERA
  • White Sox starting pitcher: Johnny Cueto (2-4), 3.33 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-CHI

The Minnesota Twins (+110) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (-130) on Monday, July 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Chicago.

The White Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Twins vs White Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Twins are 45-37 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 37-40 ATS.

Twins vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins+1.5 -175O 9 +100+110
White Sox -1.5 +145U 9 -120-130

Twins vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the White Sox will win Monday‘s matchup with 60.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+5.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 11 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+4.90 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+3.90 Units / 27% ROI)

Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Abreu has hit the RBIs Under in 32 of his last 37 games at home (+21.95 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 36 games (+13.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Jose Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+12.65 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 36 games (+8.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Seby Zavala has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+5.25 Units / 105% ROI)

White Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
A.J. Pollock 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Andrew Vaughn 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
Gavin Sheets 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Jose Abreu 0.5 +250 0.5 -375
Josh Harrison 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100

White Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
A.J. Pollock 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Andrew Vaughn 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Gavin Sheets 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Jose Abreu 0.5 -300 0.5 +195
Josh Harrison 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

White Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
A.J. Pollock 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Andrew Vaughn 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Gavin Sheets 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Jose Abreu 0.5 +110 0.5 -155
Josh Harrison 0.5 +190 0.5 -275

White Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Johnny Cueto 4.5 +125 4.5 -175
Dylan Bundy 3.5 +105 3.5 -145
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 80 games (+8.70 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 70 games (+8.35 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.45 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 games (+5.15 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+10.05 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+6.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.75 Units / 75% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.70 Units / 14% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 36-46 against the Run Line (-11.55 Units / -11.98% ROI).

  • 45-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.55 Units / 3.15% ROI
  • 36-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.3 Units / -9.25% ROI
  • 41-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.15 Units / 1.26% ROI

White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 37-40 against the Run Line (-4.5 Units / -4.71% ROI).

  • 38-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -6 Units / -6.21% ROI
  • 37-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -3.27% ROI
  • 37-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -4.2% ROI

Hitters have swung at 37% of Dylan Bundy’s breaking pitches (306/829) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.

Dylan Bundy has walked 4 of 119 left-handed batters (3%) this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 97th Percentile.

Dylan Bundy has averaged 89.4 MPH on fastballs this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 93.3 — sixth Percentile.

Dylan Bundy has struck out just 13% (15/119) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 22% — seventh Percentile.

Johnny Cueto: White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Johnny Cueto has allowed a slugging percentage of .800 (16 Total Bases / 20 ABs) vs left-handed batters — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .394 — fifth Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting .300 (6-for-20) against Johnny Cueto — 8th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .227 — 13th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (48/254) against Johnny Cueto on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 26% — eighth Percentile.

Johnny Cueto has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 12 innings — Cristian Javier has the longest active streak at 19.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox

The Twins are 40-13 (.755) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

The Twins are 4-25 (.138) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .106.

The Twins are 3-26 (.103) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .080.

The Twins are just 2-7 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The White Sox are 5-1 (.833) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The White Sox are just 2-21 (.087) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.

The White Sox are 73-13 (.849) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The White Sox are just 2-33 (.057) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .106.

Twins hitters have just 9 strikeouts in 64 PA’s (14%) against LHP over the last 14 days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Twins are batting .250 with two outs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .234.

Twins hitters are slugging .538 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .444.

Twins hitters have just 36 strikeouts in 239 PA’s (15%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .311 (48 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .656.

White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .424 (245 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .656.

The White Sox are batting .395 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .337.

White Sox hitters are slugging just .200 in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .354.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 37% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Twins pitchers over the last 14 days (14 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against White Sox pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

White Sox pitchers have walked 287 of 2,973 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The average home run distance against the White Sox pitchers since the start of last season is 393.9 feet — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9

White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

White Sox vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Liam Hendriks (White Sox): Arm, D15
  • Yasmani Grandal (White Sox): Back, D10
  • Kyle Crick (White Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Jonathan Stiever (White Sox): Lat, D60
  • Eloy Jiménez (White Sox): Hamstring, D60
  • Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Aaron Bummer (White Sox): Lat, D15
  • Adam Engel (White Sox): Hamstring, D10
  • Daniel Mendick (White Sox): ACL, D10
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Trevor Megill (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, Day-to-Day
  • Joseph Smith (Twins): Trap, D15
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.