- The Twins (77-84) are +100 favorites vs the White Sox (81-80)
- Twins starting pitcher: Louie Varland (0-2), 4.71 ERA
- White Sox starting pitcher: Davis Martin (3-5), 3.64 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-CHI
The Minnesota Twins (+100) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (-120) on Wednesday, October 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Chicago.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Twins vs White Sox Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Twins are 77-84 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 70-90 ATS.
Twins vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 -110 | +100 |
| White Sox | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 -110 | -120 |
Twins vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the White Sox will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 61.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 27 games (+16.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 26 away games (+15.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 43 of his last 69 games (+12.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 45 of his last 72 games at home (+16.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- Danny Mendick has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+15.60 Units / 142% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+15.20 Units / 89% ROI)
- Eloy Jimenez has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 31 games at home (+15.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Elvis Andrus has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 33 games (+14.90 Units / 38% ROI)
White Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Vaughn | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Josh Harrison | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Yoan Moncada | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
White Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Vaughn | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Josh Harrison | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Yoan Moncada | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
White Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Vaughn | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Josh Harrison | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Yoan Moncada | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
White Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Davis Martin | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -110 |
| Louie Varland | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.00 Units / 39% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the White Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.65 Units / 55% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 74-87 against the Run Line (-18.25 Units / -9.19% ROI).
- 77-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.1 Units / -8.57% ROI
- 73-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.2 Units / -5.74% ROI
- 76-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.45 Units / -2.51% ROI
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 70-90 against the Run Line (-21.95 Units / -11.64% ROI).
- 81-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.1 Units / -9.1% ROI
- 71-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.55 Units / -8.23% ROI
- 79-71 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.7 Units / 0.96% ROI
Louie Varland: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The hardest ball hit off of Louie Varland was 112.6 MPH — 12th hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 108.9
Davis Martin: White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Davis Martin has walked 1 of 48 batters (2%) — tied for 6th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 94th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .357 (10-for-28) against Davis Martin — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .225 — fifth Percentile.
Davis Martin had a strike rate of 72% (74/103) — 6th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 66% — 94th Percentile.
Davis Martin has allowed a slugging percentage of .571 (16 Total Bases / 28 ABs) vs left-handed batters — 6th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .365 — 11th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 9-36 (.200) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Twins are just 31-48 (.392) on the road this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Twins are just 15-30 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The White Sox are 12-5 (.706) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The White Sox are just 7-57 (.109) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The White Sox are 44-37 (.543) on the road this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The White Sox are 27-6 (.818) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are batting just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Twins hitters have 179 extra-base hits out of 446 total hits (40%) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Twins hitters have put 37% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The White Sox are batting just .161 in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .227.
White Sox hitters have drawn 274 walks in 4,742 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .444 (277 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .652.
White Sox hitters have 95 extra-base hits out of 322 total hits (just 29%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins pitchers have walked 24 of 459 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Twins pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against White Sox pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The average home run distance against the White Sox pitchers since the start of last season is 394.2 feet — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
White Sox vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Crick (White Sox): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Stiever (White Sox): Lat, D60
- Luis Robert (White Sox): Wrist, D10
- Michael Kopech (White Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Timothy Anderson (White Sox): Finger, D10
- Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Mendick (White Sox): Knee, D60
- Bernardo Zavala (White Sox): Concussion, D7
- Kyle Garlick (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Christopher Archer (Twins): Pectoral, D15
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Mouth, Day-to-Day
- Sandy León (Twins): Knee, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Sonny Gray (Twins): Hamstring, D15
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
- Trevor Megill (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
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