- The Twins are -225 favorites vs the White Sox
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
- White Sox starting pitcher: Dany Toussaint
- Watch the game on NBCS-CHI
The Minnesota Twins (-225) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (+180) on Saturday, September 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Chicago.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Twins vs White Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 78-70 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 72-76 ATS.
Twins vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 -135 | O 8.5 +100 | -225 |
| White Sox | +1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -120 | +180 |
Twins vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 82.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+11.50 Units / 50% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+10.10 Units / 67% ROI)
- Joe Ryan has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.15 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yoan Moncada has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 24 games at home (+16.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- Yoan Moncada has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 24 games at home (+14.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- Yoan Moncada has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+12.10 Units / 50% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+11.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 games at home (+11.30 Units / 22% ROI)
White Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -600 |
| Tim Anderson | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
White Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Tim Anderson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
White Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Tim Anderson | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -500 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
White Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Touki Toussaint | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
| Pablo Lopez | 7.5 +130 | 7.5 -165 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
White Sox Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 74-74 against the Run Line (-0.2 Units / -0.11% ROI).
- 78-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -12 Units / -5.81% ROI
- 74-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.35 Units / -1.43% ROI
- 69-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -11 Units / -6.81% ROI
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the White Sox have gone 72-76 against the Run Line (-17.75 Units / -9.05% ROI).
- 56-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -35.35 Units / -21.18% ROI
- 67-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -13 Units / -7.99% ROI
- 73-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -0.21% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 37% (170/456) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a first-pitch strike rate of 69% (508/733) this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .182 (24-for-132) against Pablo Lopez with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .245 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 33% (177/541) against Pablo Lopez this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 91st Percentile.
White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Touki Toussaint has a strike rate of just 58% (780/1,344) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 40% of Touki Toussaint’s pitches (537/1,344) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Touki Toussaint has walked 51 of 323 batters (16%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Touki Toussaint has a strike rate of just 56% (406/719) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 64-1 (.985) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Twins are 10-56 (.152) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Twins are just 27-41 (.397) after a road win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .495.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The White Sox are just 47-8 (.855) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The White Sox are just 18-37 (.327) after a win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The White Sox are just 7-19 (.269) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The White Sox are just 45-9 (.833) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 1,164 strikeouts in 4,247 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have 1,522 strikeouts in 5,658 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins are batting just .236 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Twins hitters are slugging .732 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .598.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
White Sox hitters have an OBP of just .293 (5,483 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
White Sox hitters have 183 extra-base hits out of 572 total hits (just 32%) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
White Sox hitters have an OBP of just .290 (4,177 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
White Sox hitters have an OBP of just .217 (2,886 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 410 of 5,514 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Twins pitchers have walked 86 of 1,330 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
White Sox pitchers have walked 599 of 5,774 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against White Sox pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against White Sox pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against White Sox pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
White Sox vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Declan Cronin (White Sox): Hand, D15
- Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Roman González (White Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Liam Hendriks (White Sox): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Foster (White Sox): Forearm, D60
- James Lambert (White Sox): Ankle, D15
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Canterino (Twins): Undisclosed, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Michael A. Taylor (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Oliver Ortega (Twins): Back, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Joseph Gallo (Twins): Foot, D10
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