Twins vs White Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 04, 2022, 8:43 AM
  • The White Sox (67-66) are -120 favorites vs the Twins (67-64)
  • Twins starting pitcher: Dylan Bundy (7-6), 4.52 ERA
  • White Sox starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito (10-8), 5.27 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-CHI

The Minnesota Twins (+100) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (-120) on Sunday, September 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Chicago.

The White Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Twins vs White Sox Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Twins are 67-62 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 59-72 ATS.

Twins vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Twins+1.5 -190O 8 -105+100
White Sox -1.5 +155U 8 -115-120

Twins vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the White Sox will win Sunday‘s matchup with 52.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 38 of his last 51 games (+17.75 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+14.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+13.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 away games (+11.65 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)

Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 62 of his last 90 games (+30.00 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Over in 63 of his last 92 games (+20.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Over in 52 of his last 92 games (+18.25 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Danny Mendick has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+15.60 Units / 142% ROI)
  • Eloy Jimenez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+15.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 72 of their last 129 games (+10.20 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 away games (+9.45 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 32 of their last 61 games (+6.15 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 72 of their last 133 games (+14.50 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.05 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.75 Units / 10% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 59-70 against the Run Line (-12.35 Units / -8.01% ROI).

  • 67-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.6 Units / -2.09% ROI
  • 61-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.95 Units / -1.38% ROI
  • 58-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.25 Units / -6.48% ROI

White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 59-72 against the Run Line (-13.85 Units / -8.89% ROI).

  • 66-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.4 Units / -8.69% ROI
  • 58-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.95 Units / -7.64% ROI
  • 64-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 0.45% ROI

Hitters have swung at 70% of Dylan Bundy’s pitches (333/473) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.

Dylan Bundy has struck out just 11% (23/203) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.

Dylan Bundy has a strike rate of 74% (352/473) in two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 51% (120/237) against Dylan Bundy with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.

Lucas Giolito: White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Lucas Giolito has allowed a slugging percentage of .559 (81 Total Bases / 145 ABs) on breaking pitches this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .366 — first Percentile.

Lucas Giolito has thrown his changeup 36% of the time (397/1,109) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

Lucas Giolito has allowed a slugging percentage of .835 (96 Total Bases / 115 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: .575 — 0 Percentile.

Lucas Giolito has allowed an OPS of .962 (318 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .710 — 0 Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox

The Twins are just 3-10 (.231) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 57-7 (.891) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Twins are 59-20 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

The Twins are 40-29 (.580) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.

White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The White Sox are just 5-49 (.093) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .201.

The White Sox are 22-5 (.815) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

The White Sox are 12-2 (.857) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The White Sox are just 8-27 (.229) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.

Twins hitters have an OPS of .760 (1,672 PA’s) in the first 3 innings this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.

Twins hitters have just 57 strikeouts in 384 PA’s (15%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Twins hitters are slugging .602 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .570.

Twins hitters have 165 extra-base hits out of 399 total hits (41%) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The White Sox are batting .372 in hitter’s counts since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .338.

White Sox hitters have drawn 28 walks in 627 PA’s (4%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .446 (266 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .653.

The White Sox are batting .266 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Twins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against White Sox pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

White Sox pitchers have walked 75 of 1,190 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

White Sox vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kyle Crick (White Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan Stiever (White Sox): Lat, D60
  • Michael Kopech (White Sox): Knee, D15
  • Timothy Anderson (White Sox): Finger, D10
  • Yoán Moncada (White Sox): Hamstring, D10
  • Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Aaron Bummer (White Sox): Lat, D60
  • Daniel Mendick (White Sox): Knee, D60
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
  • Bryson Sands (Twins): Arm, D15
  • Sonny Gray (Twins): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.