- The Yankees are -165 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
- Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole
- Watch the game on YES
The Minnesota Twins (+140) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-165) on Sunday, April 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Twins vs Yankees Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 10-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 9-6 ATS.
Twins vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -160 | O 6.5 +105 | +140 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +135 | U 6.5 -125 | -165 |
Twins vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.65 Units / 50% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.65 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 6 games (+6.15 Units / 70% ROI)
- Nick Gordon has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 60% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 65% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+6.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Yankees vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Yankees vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Yankees vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Yankees vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | 7.5 -135 | 7.5 +105 |
| Pablo Lopez | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
| Pablo Lopez | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +120 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 15 games (+5.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 51% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 10-5 against the Run Line (+6.15 Units / 34.65% ROI).
- 10-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.5 Units / 29.33% ROI
- 4-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.05 Units / -36.12% ROI
- 9-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.6 Units / 28.31% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 9-6 against the Run Line (+5.45 Units / 34.71% ROI).
- 9-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 2.98% ROI
- 6-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.15 Units / -24.7% ROI
- 9-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.45 Units / 15.12% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 44% (23/52) against Pablo Lopez this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (52/140) against Pablo Lopez this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 54% (14/26) against Pablo Lopez with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 39% (14/36) against Pablo Lopez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gerrit Cole has a first-pitch strike rate of 75% (53/71) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 96th Percentile.
51% of Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has allowed a slugging percentage of just .222 (14 Total Bases / 63 ABs) this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .408 — 92nd Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has struck out 35% (140/398) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Twins are just 5-14 (.263) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 12-28 (.300) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 13-31 (.295) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Twins are 4-2 (.667) at home this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Yankees are 20-27 (.426) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Yankees are 12-44 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .120.
The Yankees are 21-19 (.525) when underdogs since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Yankees are 10-54 (.156) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .179 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Twins hitters are slugging just .137 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Twins are batting just .131 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have drawn 5 walks in 96 PA’s (5%) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees are batting just .192 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Yankees hitters have chased 48% of pitches out of the zone in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.125 (101 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .736.
Yankees hitters have drawn 172 walks in 1,638 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 55% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .249 (518 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Twins pitchers have walked 7 of 134 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Batters facing the Yankees pitchers put just 32% of their swings in play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Yankees vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Kahnle (Yankees): Bicep, D60
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Shoulder, D10
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D15
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Oblique, D10
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
- Joseph Gallo (Twins): Side, D10
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
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