- The – (60-30) are favorites vs the – (60-30)
- Yankees starting pitcher: – (-), – ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (7-5), 3.65 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Yankees () visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros () on Thursday, July 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Houston.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Yankees vs Astros Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Yankees are 64-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 47-44 ATS.
Yankees vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | O | ||
| Astros | U |
Yankees vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s matchup with 64.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 29 away games (+13.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+11.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 23 away games (+11.40 Units / 47% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 32 games at home (+12.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 20 of his last 37 games (+12.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+9.05 Units / 56% ROI)
Astros vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Astros vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Kyle Tucker | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
Astros vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
Astros vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristian Javier | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +105 |
| Jordan Montgomery | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 82 games (+19.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+4.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 16 away games (+1.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 40 away games (+1.00 Units / 2% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 89 games (+19.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 51 of their last 78 games (+19.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 75 games (+13.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 20 games at home (+12.70 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 72 games (+7.40 Units / 9% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 45-47 against the Run Line (-2.5 Units / -2.36% ROI).
- 64-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.25 Units / 9.43% ROI
- 44-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.6 Units / -5.51% ROI
- 45-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.1 Units / -3.06% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 47-44 against the Run Line (+3.05 Units / 2.84% ROI).
- 59-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.25 Units / 6.12% ROI
- 32-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.4 Units / -27.54% ROI
- 55-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.65 Units / 19.46% ROI
–: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
15 of Nestor Cortes’ breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 58% of the time (579/1,006) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 60% of the time (230/380) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 63% of the time (159/253) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Garcia: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
45 of Luis Garcia’s 94 strikeouts (48%) have come on cutters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.
Cristian Javier has a strikeout rate of 49% (31 SO in 63 PAs) this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Cristian Javier has a first-pitch strike rate of just 48% (463/956) since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 38% of Cristian Javier’s non-fastballs (480/1,272) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Yankees are 7-16 (.304) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .116.
The Yankees are 37-12 (.755) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Yankees are 5-22 (.185) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Yankees are 38-6 (.864) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Astros are 32-4 (.889) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
The Astros are 53-9 (.855) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .884.
The Astros are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.285 (667 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.064.
Yankees hitters are slugging .445 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .566 (5,361 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .512.
Yankees hitters are slugging .319 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 576 strikeouts in 3,112 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 1,331 strikeouts in 6,579 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have an OBP of .267 (4,984 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 57% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 54% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 50 of 832 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 55% with two-strikes this month (16 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% this month (16 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
- Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
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