- The Yankees (56-20) are -130 favorites vs the Astros (47-27)
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino (4-2), 3.37 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (5-5), 3.67 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Yankees (-130) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (+110) on Thursday, June 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Yankees vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Yankees are 56-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 38-36 ATS.
Yankees vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +125 | O 7.5 +100 | -130 |
| Astros | +1.5 -155 | U 7.5 -120 | +110 |
Yankees vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s matchup with 60.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+6.70 Units / 72% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+4.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Singles Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.40 Units / 33% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+10.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 17 games at home (+10.45 Units / 61% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+10.40 Units / 51% ROI)
Astros vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.J. Matijevic | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Yuli Gurriel | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.J. Matijevic | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
| Yuli Gurriel | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
Astros vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.J. Matijevic | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Yuli Gurriel | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -150 |
Astros vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -145 |
| Luis Garcia | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 66 games (+26.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 75 games (+5.10 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 30 of their last 54 games (+4.90 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 72 games (+4.35 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.25 Units / 34% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 72 games (+19.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 61 games (+17.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 58 games (+13.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in their last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games (+8.90 Units / 14% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 39-37 against the Run Line (+2.55 Units / 2.89% ROI).
- 56-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.85 Units / 16.1% ROI
- 33-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.3 Units / -13.41% ROI
- 40-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.05 Units / 4.86% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 38-36 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 5.34% ROI).
- 47-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.5 Units / 7.42% ROI
- 24-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.7 Units / -31.77% ROI
- 46-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.55 Units / 23.81% ROI
Luis Severino: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Luis Severino this season is 376.8 feet — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 398.3
Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.032 (32 Total Bases / 31 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .568 — 0 Percentile.
Luis Severino has struck out 37% (64/174) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .100 (14-for-140) against Luis Severino when ahead in the count this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .191 — 100th Percentile.
Luis Garcia: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
37 of Luis Garcia’s 74 strikeouts (50%) have come on cutters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Garcia has allowed an OBP of just .150 (60 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .309 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 40% of Luis Garcia’s non-fastballs (440/1,096) since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: 48% — second Percentile.
Luis Garcia has located his pitches away 69% of the time (390/569) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 99th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Yankees are 6-12 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Yankees are 4-17 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .077.
The Yankees are 24-3 (.889) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .678.
The Yankees are 9-3 (.750) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Astros are 26-3 (.897) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Astros are 44-7 (.863) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Astros are 26-2 (.929) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Astros are 20-11 (.645) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .511.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees have a winning percentage of 74% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Yankees hitters are slugging .557 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
The Yankees are batting just .162 at home over the last 14 days (8 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Yankees hitters have drawn 642 walks in 6,167 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 523 strikeouts in 2,861 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have an OBP of .266 (4,649 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Astros hitters have just 269 strikeouts in 1,237 PA’s (22%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9
The Yankees have won 65% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 63% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 394.1 feet — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.98 (654.2 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.54 (2100.0 IP) since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.67 (280.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Astros vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jeremy Peña (Astros): Concussion, Day-to-Day
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Jacob Odorizzi (Astros): Leg, D15
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Concussion, Day-to-Day
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
- Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Albertin Chapman (Yankees): Achilles, D15
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
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