Yankees vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 30

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 30, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Yankees (56-20) are -130 favorites vs the Astros (47-27)
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino (4-2), 3.37 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (5-5), 3.67 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The New York Yankees (-130) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (+110) on Thursday, June 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Yankees vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Yankees are 56-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 38-36 ATS.

Yankees vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees-1.5 +125O 7.5 +100-130
Astros +1.5 -155U 7.5 -120+110

Yankees vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s matchup with 60.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Yankees and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+6.70 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Aaron Hicks has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)
  • Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Josh Donaldson has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+4.90 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Aaron Hicks has hit the Singles Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.40 Units / 33% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.05 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.25 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+10.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 17 games at home (+10.45 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+10.40 Units / 51% ROI)

Astros vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
J.J. Matijevic 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Jose Altuve 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Yuli Gurriel 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Aaron Judge 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Astros vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
J.J. Matijevic 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Jose Altuve 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Yuli Gurriel 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Aaron Judge 0.5 -275 0.5 +180

Astros vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
J.J. Matijevic 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Jose Altuve 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +325 0.5 -550
Yuli Gurriel 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Aaron Judge 0.5 +105 0.5 -150

Astros vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Luis Severino 6.5 +105 6.5 -145
Luis Garcia 5.5 +105 5.5 -150
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 66 games (+26.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 75 games (+5.10 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 30 of their last 54 games (+4.90 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 72 games (+4.35 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 72 games (+19.55 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 61 games (+17.05 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 58 games (+13.00 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in their last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 94% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games (+8.90 Units / 14% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 39-37 against the Run Line (+2.55 Units / 2.89% ROI).

  • 56-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.85 Units / 16.1% ROI
  • 33-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.3 Units / -13.41% ROI
  • 40-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.05 Units / 4.86% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 38-36 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 5.34% ROI).

  • 47-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.5 Units / 7.42% ROI
  • 24-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.7 Units / -31.77% ROI
  • 46-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.55 Units / 23.81% ROI

The average home run distance against Luis Severino this season is 376.8 feet — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 398.3

Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.032 (32 Total Bases / 31 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .568 — 0 Percentile.

Luis Severino has struck out 37% (64/174) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .100 (14-for-140) against Luis Severino when ahead in the count this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .191 — 100th Percentile.

Luis Garcia: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

37 of Luis Garcia’s 74 strikeouts (50%) have come on cutters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.

Luis Garcia has allowed an OBP of just .150 (60 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .309 — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 40% of Luis Garcia’s non-fastballs (440/1,096) since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: 48% — second Percentile.

Luis Garcia has located his pitches away 69% of the time (390/569) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 99th Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Yankees are 6-12 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .104.

The Yankees are 4-17 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Yankees are 24-3 (.889) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .678.

The Yankees are 9-3 (.750) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Astros are 26-3 (.897) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Astros are 44-7 (.863) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Astros are 26-2 (.929) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

The Astros are 20-11 (.645) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .511.

The Yankees have a winning percentage of 74% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Yankees hitters are slugging .557 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.

The Yankees are batting just .162 at home over the last 14 days (8 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.

Yankees hitters have drawn 642 walks in 6,167 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Astros hitters have just 523 strikeouts in 2,861 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have an OBP of .266 (4,649 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Astros hitters have just 269 strikeouts in 1,237 PA’s (22%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Astros hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Yankees pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9

The Yankees have won 65% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 63% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 394.1 feet — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.98 (654.2 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.54 (2100.0 IP) since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.67 (280.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.

Astros vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Jeremy Peña (Astros): Concussion, Day-to-Day
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Jacob Odorizzi (Astros): Leg, D15
  • Parker Mushinski (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Concussion, Day-to-Day
  • Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
  • Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Albertin Chapman (Yankees): Achilles, D15
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.