Yankees vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 19, ALCS

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 19, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Astros are -185 favorites vs the Yankees
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon, 0.00 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander, 13.50 ERA
  • Watch the game on TBS

The New York Yankees (+150) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-185) on Wednesday, October 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37pm EDT in Houston for this postseason game.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Yankees vs Astros Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Yankees are 102-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 87-78 ATS.

Yankees vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees+1.5 -150O 7 -120+150
Astros -1.5 +125U 7 +100-185

Yankees vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Astros vs Yankees and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+16.55 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 38 away games (+13.35 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Josh Donaldson has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 27 away games (+13.20 Units / 35% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 23 away games (+13.05 Units / 57% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 46 of his last 81 games at home (+17.50 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+12.20 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 39 games at home (+10.90 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+10.00 Units / 46% ROI)

Astros vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Chas McCormick 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Jose Altuve 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000

Astros vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Chas McCormick 0.5 -125 0.5 -115
Jeremy Pena 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Jose Altuve 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -190 0.5 +135

Astros vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Chas McCormick 0.5 +290 0.5 -450
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Jose Altuve 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +180 0.5 -275

Astros vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jameson Taillon 3.5 -150 3.5 +105
Justin Verlander 6.5 +115 6.5 -160
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 32 games (+11.15 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 28 games (+10.10 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 away games (+9.80 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games (+8.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 away games (+6.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 96 of their last 152 games (+28.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 93 of their last 163 games (+26.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 102 of their last 149 games (+22.80 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 80 of their last 146 games (+14.80 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 82 games at home (+10.35 Units / 11% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 75-92 against the Run Line (-18.75 Units / -9.67% ROI).

  • 102-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.35 Units / -0.12% ROI
  • 77-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.2 Units / -8.29% ROI
  • 84-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -0.6% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 87-78 against the Run Line (+10.45 Units / 5.38% ROI).

  • 109-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +18.3 Units / 6.3% ROI
  • 61-94 when betting on the total runs Over for -41.15 Units / -22.77% ROI
  • 94-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +26.2 Units / 14.33% ROI

Jameson Taillon has walked 8 of 269 batters (3%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 20% (4/20) against Jameson Taillon this month (1 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — fifth Percentile.

Jameson Taillon has walked 32 of 728 batters (4%) this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 93rd Percentile.

71% of Jameson Taillon’s called strikeouts are outside this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 95th Percentile.

Justin Verlander: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .227 (665 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .186 (116-for-625) against Justin Verlander this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .270 (169 Total Bases / 625 ABs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .375 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .497 (666 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .664 — 100th Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Yankees are 57-24 (.704) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Yankees are 14-9 (.609) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Astros are 43-15 (.741) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters have drawn 351 walks in 3,449 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Yankees hitters have drawn 268 walks in 2,113 PA’s (13%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Yankees hitters have an OBP of .334 (3,449 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 34% against Astros pitchers this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shin, D15
  • Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.