- The Astros are -185 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Rodón
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The New York Yankees (+150) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-185) on Friday, September 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Yankees vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 65-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 69-66 ATS.
Yankees vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -135 | O 8 +100 | +150 |
| Astros | -1.5 +110 | U 8 -120 | -185 |
Yankees vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 78.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.70 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+13.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+11.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+11.45 Units / 20% ROI)
Astros vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Everson Pereira | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
Astros vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Everson Pereira | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Astros vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Everson Pereira | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Astros vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
| Carlos Rodon | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 71 games (+13.33 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 away games (+6.82 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 27 away games (+5.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.03 Units / 43% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 47 of their last 80 games (+10.22 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 100 games (+9.10 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 62 games (+7.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 64-70 against the Run Line (-9.3 Units / -5.6% ROI).
- 65-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -17 Units / -9.69% ROI
- 61-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.9 Units / -9.41% ROI
- 68-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 0.68% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 69-66 against the Run Line (+1.6 Units / 0.95% ROI).
- 77-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -0.2% ROI
- 70-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 0.7% ROI
- 62-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.85 Units / -9.44% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Rodon has a strikeout rate of 36% (63 SO in 176 PAs) with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has thrown elevated pitches 50% of the time (440/877) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has allowed a slugging percentage of just .238 (69 Total Bases / 290 ABs) on breaking pitches since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: .375 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (79/233) against Carlos Rodon in two-strike counts since last season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .260 (133 Total Bases / 511 ABs) vs left-handed batters since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: .400 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has thrown elevated pitches 41% of the time (1,318/3,179) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .306 (334 Total Bases / 1,092 ABs) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: .405 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .500 (555 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: .710 — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are just 8-46 (.148) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .217.
The Yankees are just 13-25 (.342) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Yankees are 54-31 (.635) after a home win since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .539.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Astros are 14-11 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Astros are 36-19 (.655) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .454.
The Astros are 74-40 (.649) after a loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Astros are 11-7 (.611) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 1,079 of their 4,916 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 259 walks in 2,567 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have 92 extra-base hits out of 224 total hits (41%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Yankees are batting just .314 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 973 strikeouts in 5,412 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 593 strikeouts in 3,331 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,520/11,263 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters have just 2,230 strikeouts in 11,263 PA’s (20%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 21% against Yankees pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Graeber Kessinger (Astros): Health and Safety Protocols, D10
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Kendall Graveman (Astros): Back, Day-to-Day
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- William McKinney (Yankees): Back, D10
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Wrist, D60
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Concussion, D10
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
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