- The Yankees are -125 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Yankees vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Yankees / Blue Jays TV Channel: YES | RSN | TVA | MLBN
The New York Yankees (-125) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (+105) on Thursday, July 3, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Yankees are 48-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 53-32 ATS.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt 4-4, 3.11 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Chris Bassitt 7-4, 4.31 ERA
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +130 | O 8.5 -118 | -125 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -155 | U 8.5 -102 | +105 |
Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Hits Over in his last 15 away games (+15.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+14.55 Units / 96% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+12.45 Units / 178% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.95 Units / 64% ROI)
- Jasson Dominguez has hit the Walks Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.00 Units / 275% ROI)
- Ernie Clement has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 70% ROI)
- Ernie Clement has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- Chris Bassitt has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.45 Units / 43% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 71 games (+18.77 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 78 games (+9.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 37 away games (+4.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 47 of their last 86 games (+2.00 Units / 1% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 85 games (+19.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 54 games (+17.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 31 games (+13.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.19 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.00 Units / 19% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 39-47 against the Run Line (-9.65 Units / -9.69% ROI).
- 48-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.9 Units / -8.82% ROI
- 34-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.9 Units / -20.16% ROI
- 49-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.72 Units / 12.27% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 53-32 against the Run Line (+18 Units / 14.98% ROI).
- 48-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.99 Units / 7.78% ROI
- 47-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.75 Units / 8.18% ROI
- 36-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.25 Units / -16.13% ROI
Blue Jays vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -275 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr (NYY) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Blue Jays vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ernie Clement (TOR) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| DJ LeMahieu (NYY) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Blue Jays vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr (NYY) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
Blue Jays vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt (TOR) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
| Clarke Schmidt (NYY) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .093 (4-for-43) against Clarke Schmidt in his last two starts — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .232 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .116 (15-for-129) against Clarke Schmidt’s non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .223 — 100th Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt has allowed an OBP of just .229 (144 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .303 — 95th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .185 (25-for-135) against Clarke Schmidt this season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 94th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Bassitt has allowed a slugging percentage of .519 (42 Total Bases / 81 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — first Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed an OBP of .343 (1,168 PA’s) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .296 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .272 (103-for-379) against Chris Bassitt this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — seventh Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .333 (27-for-81) against Chris Bassitt’s low non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .187 — first Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Yankees are just 0-33 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .044.
The Yankees are 115-10 (.920) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .862.
The Yankees are 72-52 (.581) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .469.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Blue Jays are 35-3 (.921) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Blue Jays are 38-10 (.792) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Blue Jays were just 17-75 (.185) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Blue Jays are just 104-9 (.920) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 11% of their PA’s against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 12% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 14% of batters over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have a first-pitch in-zone of just 47% over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Blue Jays pitchers over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% against Blue Jays pitchers over the past seven days (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 14% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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