- The Blue Jays are -130 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes, – ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Bowden Francis, 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on SNET
The New York Yankees (+110) visit TD Ballpark to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-130) on Saturday, March 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07pm EDT in Dunedin.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Yankees vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Yankees are 6-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 9-6 ATS.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -175 | O 10 -120 | +110 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +145 | U 10 +100 | -130 |
Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Saturday‘s Spring Training matchup with 54.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 99% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 7 away games (+4.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.65 Units / 122% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Chapman has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games (+3.60 Units / 180% ROI)
- Cavan Biggio has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.50 Units / 175% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.00 Units / 32% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 36 away games (+11.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 50 games (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 37 away games (+9.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 123 games (+13.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 75 games at home (+12.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 35 games (+7.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 49 games (+7.00 Units / 9% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 7-7 against the Run Line (-0.75 Units / -4.25% ROI).
- 6-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.5 Units / -25.23% ROI
- 10-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.45 Units / 34.28% ROI
- 4-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.65 Units / -44.63% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 9-6 against the Run Line (+3.35 Units / 18.93% ROI).
- 10-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.65 Units / 22.3% ROI
- 8-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.15 Units / 6.85% ROI
- 6-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.7 Units / -16.67% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .113 (8-for-71) against Nestor Cortes on low fastballs last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .277 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .118 (13-for-110) against Nestor Cortes on low fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .272 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .183 against Nestor Cortes (11-for-60) when he was behind in the count last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .336 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .162 (72-for-444) against Nestor Cortes’ fastball since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .261 — 98th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Yankees are 57-24 (.704) at home last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Yankees are 28-4 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Blue Jays are 45-36 (.556) on the road last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Blue Jays are 78-20 (.796) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Blue Jays are 17-14 (.548) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Blue Jays are just 22-30 (.423) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters have drawn 268 walks in 2,113 PA’s (13%) in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Yankees hitters had an OPS of 1.230 (1,113 PA’s) when the pitcher was behind in the count last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.064.
Yankees hitters have drawn 271 walks in 2,878 PA’s (9%) when leading off an inning since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .664 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Blue Jays hitters have put 42% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Blue Jays are batting .261 with two outs since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
The Blue Jays are batting .265 since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of the 2021 season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have won 45% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers walked 428 of 6,098 batters (7%) last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers walked 92 of 1,455 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Blue Jays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 901 of 12,014 batters (7%) since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Toronto Blue Jays – No Injuries Reported
- New York Yankees – No Injuries Reported
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