- The Blue Jays are -140 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: José Berríos
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Yankees (+120) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-140) on Thursday, May 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Yankees vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 25-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 23-20 ATS.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -120 | +120 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +145 | U 9 +100 | -140 |
Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 43 games (+15.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+11.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 85% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 65% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 32 games (+8.45 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Daulton Varsho has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+11.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.95 Units / 55% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 44 games (+10.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 40 games (+10.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- Danny Jansen has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+9.45 Units / 94% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -450 |
Blue Jays vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| George Springer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Blue Jays vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Blue Jays vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nestor Cortes | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
| Jose Berrios | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 away games (+4.50 Units / 21% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 39 games (+6.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+5.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 24 games (+5.05 Units / 14% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 24-21 against the Run Line (+3.8 Units / 7.14% ROI).
- 25-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.35 Units / 3.78% ROI
- 21-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.3 Units / -8.69% ROI
- 23-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -0.2% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 23-20 against the Run Line (+1.55 Units / 2.87% ROI).
- 25-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 0.79% ROI
- 20-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.85 Units / -6.1% ROI
- 21-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.35 Units / -2.82% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 19% (20/104) against Nestor Cortes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 16% (9/57) against Nestor Cortes in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 22% (27/123) against Nestor Cortes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has allowed an OPS of 1.608 (37 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .736 — first Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Berrios has allowed a just .297 SLG vs right-handed batters (ninth best)– 90th Percentile and .522 vs left-handed batters this season (eighth worst among qualified SPs)– 13th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .346 (9-for-26) against Jose Berrios’ elevated fastball this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — sixth Percentile.
Jose Berrios has a strikeout rate of just 4% (2 SO in 49 PAs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (8/50) against Jose Berrios on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — seventh Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Yankees are 24-38 (.387) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Yankees are just 0-17 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 52-17 (.754) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .652.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Blue Jays are 3-15 (.167) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Blue Jays are 10-12 (.455) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Blue Jays are 14-7 (.667) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Blue Jays are 44-63 (.411) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .290.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 213 walks in 1,966 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees are batting just .203 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Yankees are batting just .216 with two outs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Yankees hitters are slugging .433 against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .264 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Blue Jays are batting .263 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Blue Jays are batting .375 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Blue Jays hitters have just 979 strikeouts in 5,024 PA’s (20%) in righty-righty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Yankees pitchers this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 42% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 16 of 108 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 122 of 1,838 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have an ERA of 2.82 (166.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Pop (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D15
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Rhomboid, D15
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
- Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D15
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Kahnle (Yankees): Bicep, D60
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Ian Hamilton (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Oswald Peraza (Yankees): Ankle, D10
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D15
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
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