- The Yankees (94-58) are -105 favorites vs the Blue Jays (86-67)
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino (6-3), 3.36 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman (12-10), 3.32 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Yankees (-105) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-115) on Monday, September 26, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Yankees vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Yankees are 94-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 66-86 ATS.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +155 | O 7.5 -115 | -105 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -190 | U 7.5 -105 | -115 |
Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Monday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 13 away games (+17.55 Units / 71% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+13.80 Units / 69% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+13.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 13 away games (+13.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.65 Units / 55% ROI)
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 52 games at home (+12.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 41 games at home (+11.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 29 games at home (+9.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Kevin Gausman has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.45 Units / 42% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Bo Bichette | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Blue Jays vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Bo Bichette | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -250 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| George Springer | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
Blue Jays vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bo Bichette | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
Blue Jays vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gausman | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -155 |
| Luis Severino | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 away games (+9.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.65 Units / 45% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.20 Units / 45% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Blue Jays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 75 games (+13.77 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 63 of their last 112 games (+12.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 38 games (+6.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 33% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 67-85 against the Run Line (-21.1 Units / -11.88% ROI).
- 94-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 0.62% ROI
- 73-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.35 Units / -5.01% ROI
- 74-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.85 Units / -4.07% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 66-86 against the Run Line (-24.9 Units / -13.7% ROI).
- 86-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -18 Units / -7.12% ROI
- 77-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -1.43% ROI
- 72-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.65 Units / -8.04% ROI
Luis Severino: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Luis Severino this season is 380.5 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 398.0
Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of .925 (37 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .570 — 0 Percentile.
Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit just .185 against Luis Severino this season — tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .257 — 95th Percentile.
Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit just .185 against Luis Severino this season — tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .257 — 95th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman: Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 40% (528/1,328) against Kevin Gausman this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 33% (259/784) against Kevin Gausman in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 40% (528/1,328) against Kevin Gausman this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 38% (497/1,303) against Kevin Gausman since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Yankees are 9-45 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Yankees are 10-38 (.208) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Yankees are 56-22 (.718) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .525.
The Yankees are 27-4 (.871) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Blue Jays are 64-3 (.955) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Blue Jays are 73-4 (.948) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Blue Jays are 72-19 (.791) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Blue Jays are 43-35 (.551) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .475.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .851 (424 PA’s) over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .691.
Yankees hitters have drawn 340 walks in 3,374 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 151 walks in 1,474 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .664 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
The Blue Jays are batting .261 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of .815 (4,106 PA’s) in the first 3 innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Blue Jays hitters have just 235 strikeouts in 1,210 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have walked 15 of 97 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (11 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.0 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.4
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 875 of 11,649 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 402 of 5,733 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
- Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D10
- Santiago Espinal (Blue Jays): Oblique, D10
- Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60
- Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Wandy Peralta (Yankees): Back, D15
- Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- David LeMahieu (Yankees): Toe, D10
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
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