Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 28

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 28, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Yankees (95-59) are -125 favorites vs the Blue Jays (87-68)
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole (12-7), 3.48 ERA
  • Blue Jays starting pitcher: Mitchell White (1-6), 5.12 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The New York Yankees (-125) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (+105) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Yankees vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Yankees are 95-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 67-87 ATS.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees-1.5 +135O 7.5 -105-125
Blue Jays +1.5 -160U 7.5 -115+105

Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 55.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 13 away games (+17.55 Units / 71% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+13.80 Units / 69% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 13 away games (+13.00 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.75 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.65 Units / 54% ROI)

Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 53 games at home (+14.00 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 42 games at home (+12.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+12.40 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Kevin Gausman has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Bo Bichette has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)

Blue Jays vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alejandro Kirk 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Bo Bichette 0.5 +750 0.5 -2500
Danny Jansen 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
George Springer 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Matt Chapman 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600

Blue Jays vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alejandro Kirk 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Bo Bichette 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Danny Jansen 0.5 -110 0.5 -125
George Springer 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Matt Chapman 0.5 -115 0.5 -125

Blue Jays vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alejandro Kirk 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Bo Bichette 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Danny Jansen 0.5 +250 0.5 -375
George Springer 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Matt Chapman 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Blue Jays vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mitch White 3.5 -175 3.5 +120
Gerrit Cole 6.5 -145 6.5 +100
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.50 Units / 29% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 68-85 against the Run Line (-20.1 Units / -11.19% ROI).

  • 95-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 0.62% ROI
  • 73-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.5 Units / -6.22% ROI
  • 76-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -2.84% ROI

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 67-87 against the Run Line (-24.2 Units / -13.17% ROI).

  • 87-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.1 Units / -7.1% ROI
  • 77-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.5 Units / -2.65% ROI
  • 74-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.65 Units / -6.77% ROI

Opponents have a miss rate of 43% (83/192) against Gerrit Cole this month (4 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 34% (508/1,489) against Gerrit Cole this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 95th Percentile.

Gerrit Cole has located his pitches away 58% of the time (628/1,073) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (337/882) against Gerrit Cole in non-two strike counts this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Mitchell White: Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Mitch White has walked 2 of 102 batters (2%) with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 14% (50/358) against Mitch White this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Mitch White has a strikeout rate of just 12% (11 SO in 89 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 10th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (91/482) against Mitch White in non-two strike counts this season — 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Yankees are 56-22 (.718) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .525.

The Yankees are 10-38 (.208) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Yankees are 9-45 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Yankees are 14-9 (.609) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Blue Jays are 43-35 (.551) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .475.

The Blue Jays are 16-13 (.552) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Blue Jays are 44-33 (.571) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .525.

The Blue Jays are 73-19 (.793) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters have drawn 870 walks in 8,563 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Yankees have a winning percentage of 72% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Yankees hitters have drawn 438 walks in 4,403 PA’s (10%) against RHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Blue Jays are batting .261 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.

Blue Jays hitters are slugging .661 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of .814 (4,127 PA’s) in the first 3 innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

Blue Jays hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.0 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.4

Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 46% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Yankees pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 882 of 11,729 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 409 of 5,813 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 11 of 232 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (26 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The Blue Jays have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
  • Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D10
  • Santiago Espinal (Blue Jays): Oblique, D10
  • Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60
  • Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Wandy Peralta (Yankees): Back, D15
  • Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
  • Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • David LeMahieu (Yankees): Toe, D10
  • Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.