- The Braves are -145 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Rodón
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton
The New York Yankees (+120) visit CoolToday Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-145) on Sunday, March 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in North Port.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).
The Yankees vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Yankees are 2-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 2-4 ATS.
Yankees vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -155 | O 9.5 -110 | +120 |
| Braves | -1.5 +130 | U 9.5 -110 | -145 |
Yankees vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 56.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 99% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 7 away games (+4.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.65 Units / 122% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 80% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 36 away games (+11.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 50 games (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 37 away games (+9.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games at home (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 2-2 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -4.95% ROI).
- 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -6.2% ROI
- 3-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.9 Units / 41.76% ROI
- 1-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.15 Units / -50.59% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 2-4 against the Run Line (-2.95 Units / -40.14% ROI).
- 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 7.74% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -3.7% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -2.31% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Rodon has a strikeout rate of 41% (105 SO in 258 PAs) with runners in scoring position since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon elevated 49% of his pitches (296/606) when ahead in the count last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon elevated 50% of his pitches (357/711) on the first pitch of at-bats last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon had a strikeout rate of 39% (56/142) with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton had a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (427/732) last season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a swing rate of just 45% (648/1,442) against Charlie Morton last season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (63/190) against Charlie Morton with runners in scoring position since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Charlie Morton had a strike rate of just 63% (914/1,442) against right-handed batters last season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 10th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Yankees are 57-24 (.704) at home last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Yankees are 28-4 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Braves are 59-12 (.831) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters have drawn 890 walks in 8,783 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees batted just .214 with two outs last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.176 (2,320 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .517 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Braves hitters are slugging .624 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Braves hitters slugged .307 with two-strikes last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters slugged .656 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of the 2021 season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 47% of the time last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Braves allowed 1.02 runs per game (165/162) in late innings last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Braves vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
- New York Yankees – No Injuries Reported
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