- The Cardinals are -135 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees starting pitcher: –
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Matthew Liberatore
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Yankees (+115) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-135) on Saturday, July 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Yankees vs Cardinals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 45-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 35-45 ATS.
Yankees vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -185 | O 9 -115 | +115 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +150 | U 9 -105 | -135 |
Yankees vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 52.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.45 Units / 47% ROI)
- Billy McKinney has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+8.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 38 games (+8.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- Jake Bauers has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.65 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+16.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+14.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+14.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+14.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+13.90 Units / 58% ROI)
Cardinals vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
Cardinals vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Cardinals vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Cardinals vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
| Jack Flaherty | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 51 games (+11.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 51 games (+9.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+7.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 away games (+6.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.40 Units / 43% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 76 games (+11.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+8.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 76 games (+7.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+6.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.35 Units / 29% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 44-37 against the Run Line (+8.2 Units / 8.31% ROI).
- 45-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.25 Units / 4.94% ROI
- 34-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.15 Units / -16% ROI
- 44-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.25 Units / 6.94% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 35-45 against the Run Line (-14.65 Units / -14.39% ROI).
- 33-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -27.5 Units / -26.19% ROI
- 38-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.75 Units / -5.39% ROI
- 39-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -2.95% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 9% (4/43) against Luis Severino over the past seven days (1 games) — lowest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 27% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (14/92) against Luis Severino over the last 14 days (2 games) — 2nd lowest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Luis Severino has not induced opposing hitters to ground into a double play in 28 opportunities (0%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 12% (5/43) against Luis Severino over the past seven days (1 games) — lowest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 30% — second Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of .492 (130 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .325 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 40% (482/1,211) against Jack Flaherty since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has walked 24 of 130 batters (18%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 39% (332/847) against Jack Flaherty this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Yankees are 27-45 (.375) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Yankees are 34-30 (.531) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .356.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 13-9 (.591) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Cardinals are just 26-5 (.839) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Cardinals are just 23-6 (.793) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .893.
The Cardinals are just 23-9 (.719) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Cardinals are 25-7 (.781) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 225 walks in 2,144 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of just .294 (2,367 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 660 of their 2,962 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees hitters have pulled 53% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 41% in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .458 against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Cardinals are just 26-5 (.839) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Cardinals hitters have put 39% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Yankees pitchers have an ERA of 3.15 (1147.0 IP) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.94.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Yankees pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% against Cardinals pitchers over the last 30 days (23 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Jacob Woodford (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Wilking RodrÃguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Brendan Donovan (Cardinals): Arm, Day-to-Day
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Back, D60
- Willie Calhoun (Yankees): Quad, D10
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Toe, D10
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Yankees): Hip, D10
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