- The Yankees are -105 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Jordan Montgomery
- Watch the game on BSMW
The New York Yankees (-105) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-115) on Sunday, July 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Yankees vs Cardinals Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 46-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 36-46 ATS.
Yankees vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +155 | O 7.5 -110 | -105 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -190 | U 7.5 -110 | -115 |
Yankees vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 55.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Bauers has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+8.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 38 games (+8.70 Units / 12% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+15.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 31 games (+14.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+13.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+13.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+12.75 Units / 31% ROI)
Cardinals vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jordan Walker | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Cardinals vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jordan Walker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Cardinals vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jordan Walker | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Cardinals vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
| Jordan Montgomery | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 53 games (+11.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 53 games (+9.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games (+7.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 away games (+6.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 81 games (+2.90 Units / 3% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 78 games (+11.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+7.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.90 Units / 13% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 45-38 against the Run Line (+7.5 Units / 7.32% ROI).
- 46-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.25 Units / 4.84% ROI
- 35-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.3 Units / -15.78% ROI
- 45-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.1 Units / 6.62% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 36-46 against the Run Line (-14.1 Units / -13.58% ROI).
- 34-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -27.6 Units / -25.69% ROI
- 39-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.9 Units / -5.43% ROI
- 40-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.75 Units / -3.05% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
53% of Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
57% of Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has allowed an OBP of just .212 (80 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .313 — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 15% (6/39) against Gerrit Cole over the last 30 days (5 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .383 (18-for-47) against Jordan Montgomery on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .339 — 17th Percentile.
37% of Jordan Montgomery’s fastball strikeouts are located down this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 94th Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has allowed a slugging percentage of .451 (73 Total Bases / 162 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 — 15th Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has not allowed a walk in his last 67 PAs against a LHH dating back to October 8th, 2022 — Tyler Alexander has the longest active streak at 110.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Yankees are 27-46 (.370) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 35-30 (.538) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .356.
The Yankees are 86-58 (.597) after a win since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Cardinals are just 27-5 (.844) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Cardinals are just 24-6 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .894.
The Cardinals are just 24-9 (.727) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Cardinals are 25-7 (.781) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 226 walks in 2,164 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 682 of their 3,042 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Games involving the Yankees went UNDER in 84% of their games (59.2% ROI) after a home loss this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of just .296 (1,552 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 41% in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cardinals hitters have 315 extra-base hits out of 758 total hits (42%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Cardinals are batting .292 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .784 (2,069 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .223 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 39% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cardinals vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Jacob Woodford (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D15
- Wilking RodrÃguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Back, D60
- Willie Calhoun (Yankees): Quad, D10
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Toe, D10
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Yankees): Hip, D10
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