- The Yankees are -110 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Matthew Liberatore
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Yankees (-110) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-110) on Friday, June 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Yankees vs Cardinals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 45-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 35-45 ATS.
Yankees vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +145 | O 9.5 -115 | -110 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -175 | U 9.5 -105 | -110 |
Yankees vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 52.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.45 Units / 47% ROI)
- Billy McKinney has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+8.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 38 games (+8.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- Jake Bauers has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.65 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+16.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+14.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+14.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+14.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+13.90 Units / 58% ROI)
Cardinals vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Cardinals vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Cardinals vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Cardinals vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
| Matthew Liberatore | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -120 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 51 games (+11.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 51 games (+9.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+7.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 away games (+6.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.40 Units / 43% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 76 games (+11.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+8.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 76 games (+7.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+6.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.35 Units / 29% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 44-37 against the Run Line (+8.2 Units / 8.31% ROI).
- 45-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.25 Units / 4.94% ROI
- 34-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.15 Units / -16% ROI
- 44-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.25 Units / 6.94% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 35-45 against the Run Line (-14.65 Units / -14.39% ROI).
- 33-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -27.5 Units / -26.19% ROI
- 38-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.75 Units / -5.39% ROI
- 39-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -2.95% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 9% (4/43) against Luis Severino over the past seven days (1 games) — lowest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 67 of Luis Severino’s 268 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 25%) since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 35% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 12% (5/43) against Luis Severino over the past seven days (1 games) — lowest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 30% — first Percentile.
Luis Severino has allowed an OBP of .395 (119 PA’s) over the last 30 days (5 games) — highest among in MLB; League Avg: .301 — first Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Carrasco allowed an OPS of 1.539 (106 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 1.038 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents batted .500 against Carlos Carrasco (44-for-88) when he was behind in the count in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .336 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco allowed a slugging percentage of .955 (84 Total Bases / 88 ABs) when he was behind in the count in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .582 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco allowed a slugging percentage of .649 (61 Total Bases / 94 ABs) on elevated fastballs in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .374 — 0 Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Yankees are 27-45 (.375) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Yankees are 13-9 (.591) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Yankees are 34-30 (.531) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .356.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Cardinals are just 26-5 (.839) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Cardinals are just 23-9 (.719) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Cardinals are just 23-6 (.793) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .893.
The Cardinals are 25-7 (.781) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 222 walks in 2,107 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of just .293 (2,358 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 645 of their 2,916 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of just .296 (1,552 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 41% in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .335 (2,052 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Cardinals hitters have 314 extra-base hits out of 755 total hits (42%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .448 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 40% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Yankees pitchers won 56% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cardinals vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Wilking RodrÃguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Back, D60
- Willie Calhoun (Yankees): Quad, D10
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Toe, D10
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Yankees): Hip, D10
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Elbow, Day-to-Day
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