- The Cardinals are -140 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes, 13.50 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Steven Matz, 1.54 ERA
- Watch the game on BSMW
The New York Yankees (+115) visit Roger Dean Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-140) on Thursday, March 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Jupiter.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Yankees vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Yankees are 7-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 12-8 ATS.
Yankees vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 -105 | +115 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 -115 | -140 |
Yankees vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Thursday‘s Spring Training matchup with 60.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 99% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 7 away games (+4.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.65 Units / 122% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nolan Gorman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 36 away games (+11.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 50 games (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 37 away games (+9.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 67 games at home (+13.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 67 games at home (+13.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 67 games at home (+9.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 96 games (+7.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games at home (+6.15 Units / 6% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 8-9 against the Run Line (-2.25 Units / -10.56% ROI).
- 7-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.7 Units / -26.12% ROI
- 10-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.45 Units / 18.02% ROI
- 6-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.65 Units / -25.41% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 12-8 against the Run Line (+6 Units / 26.43% ROI).
- 12-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.65 Units / 21.98% ROI
- 6-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.15 Units / -37.3% ROI
- 13-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.25 Units / 28.15% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .113 (8-for-71) against Nestor Cortes on low fastballs last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .277 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .118 (13-for-110) against Nestor Cortes on low fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .272 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .183 against Nestor Cortes (11-for-60) when he was behind in the count last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .336 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .162 (72-for-444) against Nestor Cortes’ fastball since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .261 — 98th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 10% (37/365) against Steven Matz since the start of the 2021 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 16% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .202 (91-for-451) against Steven Matz with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 15th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .165 — 10th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 26% (404/1,543) against Steven Matz since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 11th Percentile.
The last hit on a Steven Matz fastball was May 17th, 2022. Hitters are 0 for their last 18 in ABs ending on his fastball. — Pete Fairbanks has the longest active streak at 29.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Yankees are 57-24 (.704) at home last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Yankees are 28-4 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Cardinals are 16-4 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 47-11 (.810) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Cardinals are 15-9 (.625) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 68-4 (.944) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters have drawn 268 walks in 2,113 PA’s (13%) in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Yankees hitters had an OPS of 1.230 (1,113 PA’s) when the pitcher was behind in the count last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.064.
Yankees hitters have drawn 271 walks in 2,878 PA’s (9%) when leading off an inning since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have 260 extra-base hits out of 599 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .469 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Cardinals hitters have 287 extra-base hits out of 671 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .803 (2,611 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have won 45% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 47% of the time last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 48% against Cardinals pitchers last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 250 of 2,866 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- St. Louis Cardinals – No Injuries Reported
- New York Yankees – No Injuries Reported
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