- The Yankees are -175 favorites vs the Guardians
- Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole
- Guardians starting pitcher: Hunter Gaddis
- Watch the game on BSGL
The New York Yankees (-175) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+145) on Tuesday, April 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Yankees vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 6-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 5-6 ATS.
Yankees vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 -105 | O 8 -105 | -175 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -115 | U 8 -115 | +145 |
Yankees vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 63.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 99% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 7 away games (+4.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.65 Units / 122% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bryan Lavastida has hit the Singles Under in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Guardians vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oswaldo Cabrera | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Franchy Cordero | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Guardians vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oswaldo Cabrera | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Aaron Judge | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Franchy Cordero | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Guardians vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oswaldo Cabrera | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Franchy Cordero | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Guardians vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 +105 |
| Hunter Gaddis | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.70 Units / 64% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.95 Units / 56% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.25 Units / 51% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.40 Units / 24% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 10 games (+0.20 Units / 2% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 7-3 against the Run Line (+5.95 Units / 56.13% ROI).
- 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 5.23% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.85 Units / -25% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.75 Units / 16.51% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 5-6 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -5.76% ROI).
- 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.25 Units / 16.3% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.55 Units / 12.7% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -20.83% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gerrit Cole has struck out 46% (15/33) of left-handed batters he faced — best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
51% of Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts came on 97+ MPH fastballs in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 14% (5/35) against Gerrit Cole on low breaking pitches this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has a strikeout rate of 42% (19 SO in 45 PAs) this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (6/41) against Hunter Gaddis this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .115 (3-for-26) against Hunter Gaddis’ non-fastballs this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .215 — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (12/74) against Hunter Gaddis this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 25% (4/16) against Hunter Gaddis this season — tied for 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — eighth Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Yankees are 20-26 (.435) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 21-19 (.525) when underdogs since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Yankees are 11-43 (.204) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Guardians are 19-59 (.244) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Guardians are 14-62 (.184) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Guardians are 21-38 (.356) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Guardians were 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 171 walks in 1,626 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters drew 162 walks in 1,549 PA’s (10%) against LHP in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees are 20-26 (.435) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters struck out just 795 times in 4,584 PA’s (17%) against RHP in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters missed on just 21% of swings in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters had 93 extra-base hits out of 341 total hits (just 27%) against LHP in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Guardians hitters slugged just .343 against LHP in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
In games when their opponents scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have still managed to win 47% of the time in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees pitchers won 56% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Yankees pitchers won 45% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers walked 88 of 1,460 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 469 of 6,417 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Guardians pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers walked 435 of 5,989 batters (7%) in 2022 — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Sam D. Hentges (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Kahnle (Yankees): Bicep, D60
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Shoulder, D10
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D15
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Oblique, D10
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D15
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