- The Yankees (56-21) are -225 favorites vs the Guardians (39-34)
- Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole (6-2), 2.98 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale (2-4), 7.20 ERA
- Watch the game on BSGL
The New York Yankees (-225) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+180) on Friday, July 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-130).
The Yankees vs Guardians Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Yankees are 56-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 39-34 ATS.
Yankees vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 -130 | O 8.5 -115 | -225 |
| Guardians | +1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -105 | +180 |
Yankees vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s matchup with 51.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 games (+8.40 Units / 81% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Owen Miller has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games (+5.40 Units / 67% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.65 Units / 74% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+1.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Singles Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Guardians vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Guardians vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
Guardians vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +100 |
| Gerrit Cole | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 67 games (+24.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 76 games (+6.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 31 of their last 55 games (+5.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 73 games (+3.35 Units / 4% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.25 Units / 17% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 54 games (+11.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+9.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 54 games (+7.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games (+6.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 42 games (+4.85 Units / 11% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 39-38 against the Run Line (+1.55 Units / 1.74% ROI).
- 56-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.4 Units / 14.92% ROI
- 33-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.3 Units / -14.43% ROI
- 41-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.05 Units / 5.97% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 39-34 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 2.22% ROI).
- 39-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.6 Units / 7.58% ROI
- 34-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.65 Units / -3.28% ROI
- 33-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.3 Units / -5.36% ROI
Gerrit Cole: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of 43% (63/147) against Gerrit Cole when he’s behind in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has struck out 50% (12/24) of left-handed batters he faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
56% of Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .132 (18-for-136) against Gerrit Cole this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Civale: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of .677 (65 Total Bases / 96 ABs) on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: .383 — 0 Percentile.
Aaron Civale has an ERA of 7.20 (40.0 IP)this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 3.82 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 31% (40/130) against Aaron Civale this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Aaron Civale has not allowed a home run in any of the last 19.2 innings he’s appeared — Dennis Santana has the longest active streak at 44.1.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Yankees are 6-13 (.316) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Yankees are 34-9 (.791) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Yankees are 31-4 (.886) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Yankees are 9-3 (.750) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Guardians are 8-29 (.216) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .077.
The Guardians are 27-3 (.900) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Guardians are 23-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .923.
The Guardians are 24-2 (.923) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees are batting just .280 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Yankees have a winning percentage of 73% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Yankees hitters are slugging .567 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
The Yankees have a winning percentage of 79% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .614 (796 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Guardians hitters have just 341 strikeouts in 1,958 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have just 509 strikeouts in 2,754 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Yankees have won 65% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 63% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Guardians have have still managed to win 42% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 23% in close and late situations this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Hedges (Guardians): Concussion, D7
- James Karinchak (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
- Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
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