Yankees vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 1

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 01, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Yankees (56-21) are -225 favorites vs the Guardians (39-34)
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole (6-2), 2.98 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale (2-4), 7.20 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The New York Yankees (-225) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+180) on Friday, July 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-130).

The Yankees vs Guardians Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Yankees are 56-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 39-34 ATS.

Yankees vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees-1.5 -130O 8.5 -115-225
Guardians +1.5 +105U 8.5 -105+180

Yankees vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s matchup with 51.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Yankees and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 games (+8.40 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Joey Gallo has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Joey Gallo has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Giancarlo Stanton has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Owen Miller has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games (+5.40 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Owen Miller has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Owen Miller has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.65 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Owen Miller has hit the RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+1.70 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Owen Miller has hit the Singles Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 18% ROI)

Guardians vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Josh Naylor 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000

Guardians vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 1.5 +185 1.5 -275
Andres Gimenez 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Franmil Reyes 0.5 -140 0.5 -105
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Josh Naylor 0.5 -200 0.5 +135

Guardians vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Josh Naylor 0.5 +150 0.5 -225

Guardians vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Civale 3.5 -145 3.5 +100
Gerrit Cole 6.5 -135 6.5 -105
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 67 games (+24.80 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 76 games (+6.10 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 31 of their last 55 games (+5.90 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 73 games (+3.35 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 54 games (+11.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+9.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 54 games (+7.20 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games (+6.60 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 42 games (+4.85 Units / 11% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 39-38 against the Run Line (+1.55 Units / 1.74% ROI).

  • 56-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.4 Units / 14.92% ROI
  • 33-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.3 Units / -14.43% ROI
  • 41-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.05 Units / 5.97% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 39-34 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 2.22% ROI).

  • 39-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.6 Units / 7.58% ROI
  • 34-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.65 Units / -3.28% ROI
  • 33-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.3 Units / -5.36% ROI

Opposing hitters have a miss rate of 43% (63/147) against Gerrit Cole when he’s behind in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Gerrit Cole has struck out 50% (12/24) of left-handed batters he faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

56% of Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .132 (18-for-136) against Gerrit Cole this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Civale: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of .677 (65 Total Bases / 96 ABs) on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: .383 — 0 Percentile.

Aaron Civale has an ERA of 7.20 (40.0 IP)this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 3.82 — second Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 31% (40/130) against Aaron Civale this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.

Aaron Civale has not allowed a home run in any of the last 19.2 innings he’s appeared — Dennis Santana has the longest active streak at 44.1.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Yankees are 6-13 (.316) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .104.

The Yankees are 34-9 (.791) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Yankees are 31-4 (.886) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Yankees are 9-3 (.750) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Guardians are 8-29 (.216) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Guardians are 27-3 (.900) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Guardians are 23-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .923.

The Guardians are 24-2 (.923) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

The Yankees are batting just .280 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Yankees have a winning percentage of 73% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Yankees hitters are slugging .567 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .446.

The Yankees have a winning percentage of 79% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 51%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .614 (796 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.

Guardians hitters have just 341 strikeouts in 1,958 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have just 509 strikeouts in 2,754 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Yankees pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Yankees have won 65% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 63% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Guardians have have still managed to win 42% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 23% in close and late situations this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Austin Hedges (Guardians): Concussion, D7
  • James Karinchak (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
  • Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.