- The Yankees (58-21) are -165 favorites vs the Guardians (39-36)
- Yankees starting pitcher: Jordan Montgomery (3-1), 3.27 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (4-6), 4.03 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Yankees (-165) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+140) on Sunday, July 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Yankees vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Yankees are 58-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 39-36 ATS.
Yankees vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +105 | O 7.5 -120 | -165 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -125 | U 7.5 +100 | +140 |
Yankees vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joey Gallo has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Total Bases Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Runs Under in 4 of his last 6 away games (+0.50 Units / 5% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- No trends found
Guardians vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Ernie Clement | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1350 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -225 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ernie Clement | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
Guardians vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ernie Clement | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
Guardians vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Triston McKenzie | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -115 |
| Jordan Montgomery | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -125 |
| Triston McKenzie | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -155 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 69 games (+26.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 78 games (+6.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 32 of their last 57 games (+5.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 75 games (+5.35 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.25 Units / 31% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 56 games (+9.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+9.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 56 games (+5.15 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 44 games (+4.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 35 games (+4.60 Units / 12% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 41-38 against the Run Line (+3.55 Units / 3.88% ROI).
- 58-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +23.4 Units / 15.92% ROI
- 34-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.4 Units / -14.18% ROI
- 42-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.95 Units / 5.7% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 39-36 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 39-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.6 Units / 5.17% ROI
- 35-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -3.32% ROI
- 34-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -5.34% ROI
Jordan Montgomery: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Montgomery has walked 14 of 343 batters (4%) this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .348 (16-for-46) against Jordan Montgomery on inside fastballs this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .261 — eighth Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has struck out just 16% (48/296) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 11th Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has walked 2 of 62 batters (3%) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 96th Percentile.
Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (68/223) against Triston McKenzie this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (45/143) against Triston McKenzie this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .146 (6-for-41) against Triston McKenzie on inside fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .261 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (38/145) against Triston McKenzie in non-two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Yankees are 6-13 (.316) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Yankees are 24-3 (.889) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .672.
The Yankees are 34-9 (.791) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Yankees are 11-5 (.688) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Guardians are 8-31 (.205) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .078.
The Guardians are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 24-2 (.923) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Guardians are 23-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .922.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters are slugging .558 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.07 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
The Yankees are batting just .279 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 350 strikeouts in 1,998 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .616 (831 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Guardians hitters have just 527 strikeouts in 2,829 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 63% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9
The Yankees have won 65% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Yankees pitchers have won 54% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 65% of opposing batters this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.4 MPH this season (1,851 balls in play) — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% over the past seven days (8 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Hedges (Guardians): Concussion, D7
- Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D10
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
- Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
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