Yankees vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 3

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 03, 2022, 3:36 PM
  • The Yankees (58-21) are -165 favorites vs the Guardians (39-36)
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Jordan Montgomery (3-1), 3.27 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (4-6), 4.03 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The New York Yankees (-165) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+140) on Sunday, July 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Yankees vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Yankees are 58-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 39-36 ATS.

Yankees vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees-1.5 +105O 7.5 -120-165
Guardians +1.5 -125U 7.5 +100+140

Yankees vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Yankees and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joey Gallo has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Joey Gallo has hit the Total Bases Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Joey Gallo has hit the Runs Under in 4 of his last 6 away games (+0.50 Units / 5% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • No trends found

Guardians vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Ernie Clement 0.5 +1100 0.5
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Myles Straw 0.5 +1350 0.5

Guardians vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 1.5 +160 1.5 -225
Andres Gimenez 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Ernie Clement 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Franmil Reyes 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Myles Straw 0.5 -185 0.5 +130

Guardians vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Ernie Clement 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Myles Straw 0.5 +300 0.5 -500

Guardians vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Triston McKenzie 4.5 -125 4.5 -115
Jordan Montgomery 4.5 -115 4.5 -125
Triston McKenzie 5.5 +110 5.5 -155
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 69 games (+26.80 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 78 games (+6.00 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 32 of their last 57 games (+5.75 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 75 games (+5.35 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.25 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 56 games (+9.55 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+9.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 56 games (+5.15 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 44 games (+4.75 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 35 games (+4.60 Units / 12% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 41-38 against the Run Line (+3.55 Units / 3.88% ROI).

  • 58-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +23.4 Units / 15.92% ROI
  • 34-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.4 Units / -14.18% ROI
  • 42-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.95 Units / 5.7% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 39-36 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).

  • 39-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.6 Units / 5.17% ROI
  • 35-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -3.32% ROI
  • 34-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -5.34% ROI

Jordan Montgomery has walked 14 of 343 batters (4%) this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 95th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .348 (16-for-46) against Jordan Montgomery on inside fastballs this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .261 — eighth Percentile.

Jordan Montgomery has struck out just 16% (48/296) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 11th Percentile.

Jordan Montgomery has walked 2 of 62 batters (3%) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 96th Percentile.

Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (68/223) against Triston McKenzie this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (45/143) against Triston McKenzie this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .146 (6-for-41) against Triston McKenzie on inside fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .261 — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (38/145) against Triston McKenzie in non-two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Yankees are 6-13 (.316) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .104.

The Yankees are 24-3 (.889) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .672.

The Yankees are 34-9 (.791) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Yankees are 11-5 (.688) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Guardians are 8-31 (.205) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .078.

The Guardians are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Guardians are 24-2 (.923) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Guardians are 23-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .922.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters are slugging .558 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .444.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.07 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.

The Yankees are batting just .279 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters have just 350 strikeouts in 1,998 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .616 (831 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.

Guardians hitters have just 527 strikeouts in 2,829 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 63% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9

The Yankees have won 65% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Yankees pitchers have won 54% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Guardians pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 65% of opposing batters this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.4 MPH this season (1,851 balls in play) — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% over the past seven days (8 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Austin Hedges (Guardians): Concussion, D7
  • Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D10
  • Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
  • Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.