Yankees vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 15, ALDS

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 15, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Yankees are -115 favorites vs the Guardians
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino, ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie, 0.00 ERA
  • Watch the game on TBS

The New York Yankees (-115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-105) on Saturday, October 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37pm EDT in Cleveland for this postseason game.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Yankees vs Guardians Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Yankees are 100-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 87-79 ATS.

Yankees vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees-1.5 +155O 6.5 -105-115
Guardians +1.5 -190U 6.5 -115-105

Yankees vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s matchup with 54.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Yankees and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+16.55 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Josh Donaldson has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+13.10 Units / 37% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 23 away games (+13.05 Units / 57% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 36 away games (+11.35 Units / 20% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 31 games at home (+17.10 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Austin Hedges has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.65 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Austin Hedges has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.60 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Austin Hedges has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.00 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Singles Over in 38 of his last 60 games (+11.75 Units / 16% ROI)

Guardians vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +1000 0.5 -10000
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Austin Hedges 0.5 +1150 0.5
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Josh Naylor 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200

Guardians vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Andres Gimenez 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Austin Hedges 0.5 +115 0.5 -160
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -210 0.5 +145
Josh Naylor 0.5 -210 0.5 +150

Guardians vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +250 0.5 -375
Austin Hedges 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Josh Naylor 0.5 +170 0.5 -250

Guardians vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Luis Severino 4.5 +110 4.5 -155
Triston McKenzie 6.5 +100 6.5 -145
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 away games (+9.90 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 away games (+9.25 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 games (+7.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.75 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 88 of their last 147 games (+27.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 79 of their last 147 games (+10.70 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 71 games at home (+9.00 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 60 games (+8.55 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 57 games at home (+5.96 Units / 9% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 73-91 against the Run Line (-20.15 Units / -10.56% ROI).

  • 100-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -0.39% ROI
  • 76-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -14 Units / -7.78% ROI
  • 82-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -2 Units / -1.1% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 87-79 against the Run Line (+5.55 Units / 2.69% ROI).

  • 95-71 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.15 Units / 10.53% ROI
  • 75-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.9 Units / -7.61% ROI
  • 81-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -0.85% ROI

The average home run distance against Luis Severino this season is 380.5 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 397.8

Opponents are hitless in 20 AB’s against Luis Severino this month (1 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .196 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .114 (23-for-201) against Luis Severino when ahead in the count this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .191 — 100th Percentile.

Luis Severino has allowed an OBP of just .048 (21 PA’s) this month (1 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .254 — 100th Percentile.

Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (173/514) against Triston McKenzie this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (63/195) against Triston McKenzie in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.

Triston McKenzie has allowed an OBP of just .251 (761 PA’s) this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 93rd Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .197 (127-for-646) against Triston McKenzie since the start of last season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 94th Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Yankees are 57-24 (.704) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Yankees are 28-4 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Guardians are 47-35 (.573) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

Yankees hitters have drawn 162 walks in 1,549 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees hitters have drawn 351 walks in 3,449 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Yankees hitters have drawn 465 walks in 4,666 PA’s (10%) against RHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees hitters have drawn 125 walks in 1,226 PA’s (10%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians hitters have just 811 strikeouts in 4,643 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .343 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Guardians hitters have just 1,149 strikeouts in 6,257 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 47% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Yankees pitchers have won 54% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 447 of 6,086 batters (7%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 90 of 1,485 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 1,126 of 14,230 batters (8%) since the start of 2020 — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Guardians vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shin, D15
  • Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.