- The Yankees are -165 favorites vs the Guardians
- Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole, 1.42 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill, 5.40 ERA
- Watch the game on TBS
The New York Yankees (-165) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+140) on Sunday, October 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Cleveland for this postseason game.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Yankees vs Guardians Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Yankees are 100-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 88-79 ATS.
Yankees vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +105 | O 6.5 +105 | -165 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -130 | U 6.5 -125 | +140 |
Yankees vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+16.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 26 away games (+14.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 23 away games (+13.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 37 away games (+12.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 32 games at home (+18.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 61 games (+12.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- Austin Hedges has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- Austin Hedges has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- Austin Hedges has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 25% ROI)
Guardians vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Guardians vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
Guardians vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
Guardians vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 away games (+8.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 away games (+7.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 games (+6.30 Units / 12% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 148 games (+28.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 80 of their last 148 games (+11.70 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 72 games at home (+8.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 61 games (+7.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games (+5.82 Units / 15% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 73-92 against the Run Line (-21.15 Units / -11.02% ROI).
- 100-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -0.8% ROI
- 77-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -13 Units / -7.18% ROI
- 82-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.1 Units / -1.7% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 88-79 against the Run Line (+6.55 Units / 3.15% ROI).
- 96-71 when betting on the Moneyline for +23.15 Units / 10.95% ROI
- 76-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.9 Units / -7.02% ROI
- 81-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.65 Units / -1.44% ROI
Gerrit Cole: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .246 (17-for-69) against Gerrit Cole on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .336 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (92/235) against Gerrit Cole on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has struck out 36% (129/355) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has a strikeout rate of 36% (100 SO in 275 PAs) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Cal Quantrill: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (115/778) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has a strike rate of just 62% (533/861) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (42/252) against Cal Quantrill on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 17% (128 SO in 770 PAs) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Yankees are 75-5 (.938) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Yankees are 28-4 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 19-2 (.905) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Guardians are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.179 (2,332 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Yankees hitters are slugging .467 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .347.
Yankees hitters have drawn 629 walks in 6,249 PA’s (10%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees are batting just .214 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 819 strikeouts in 4,677 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .342 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Guardians hitters have just 1,159 strikeouts in 6,298 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 47% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 90 of 1,494 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 449 of 6,120 batters (7%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 31% against Guardians pitchers this month (8 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shin, D15
- Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
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