Yankees vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 16, ALDS

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 16, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Yankees are -165 favorites vs the Guardians
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole, 1.42 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill, 5.40 ERA
  • Watch the game on TBS

The New York Yankees (-165) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+140) on Sunday, October 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Cleveland for this postseason game.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Yankees vs Guardians Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Yankees are 100-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 88-79 ATS.

Yankees vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees-1.5 +105O 6.5 +105-165
Guardians +1.5 -130U 6.5 -125+140

Yankees vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Yankees and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+16.55 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Josh Donaldson has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 26 away games (+14.20 Units / 39% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 23 away games (+13.05 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 37 away games (+12.35 Units / 21% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 32 games at home (+18.10 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 61 games (+12.75 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Austin Hedges has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.90 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Austin Hedges has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.85 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Austin Hedges has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 25% ROI)

Guardians vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Austin Hedges 0.5 +1200 0.5
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Josh Naylor 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100

Guardians vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Andres Gimenez 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Austin Hedges 0.5 +120 0.5 -165
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Josh Naylor 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Guardians vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +250 0.5 -375
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Austin Hedges 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Josh Naylor 0.5 +190 0.5 -275

Guardians vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cal Quantrill 3.5 -175 3.5 +120
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 away games (+8.80 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.10 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 away games (+7.95 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 games (+6.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 148 games (+28.10 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 80 of their last 148 games (+11.70 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 72 games at home (+8.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 61 games (+7.45 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games (+5.82 Units / 15% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 73-92 against the Run Line (-21.15 Units / -11.02% ROI).

  • 100-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -0.8% ROI
  • 77-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -13 Units / -7.18% ROI
  • 82-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.1 Units / -1.7% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 88-79 against the Run Line (+6.55 Units / 3.15% ROI).

  • 96-71 when betting on the Moneyline for +23.15 Units / 10.95% ROI
  • 76-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.9 Units / -7.02% ROI
  • 81-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.65 Units / -1.44% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .246 (17-for-69) against Gerrit Cole on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .336 — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (92/235) against Gerrit Cole on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.

Gerrit Cole has struck out 36% (129/355) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Gerrit Cole has a strikeout rate of 36% (100 SO in 275 PAs) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.

Cal Quantrill: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (115/778) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has a strike rate of just 62% (533/861) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — sixth Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (42/252) against Cal Quantrill on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 17% (128 SO in 770 PAs) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Yankees are 75-5 (.938) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Yankees are 28-4 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 19-2 (.905) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Guardians are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.179 (2,332 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.

Yankees hitters are slugging .467 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .347.

Yankees hitters have drawn 629 walks in 6,249 PA’s (10%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Yankees are batting just .214 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.

Guardians hitters have just 819 strikeouts in 4,677 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .342 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Guardians hitters have just 1,159 strikeouts in 6,298 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 47% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 90 of 1,494 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 449 of 6,120 batters (7%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 31% against Guardians pitchers this month (8 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Guardians vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shin, D15
  • Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.