Guardians vs. Yankees: ALDS Prediction & Odds

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New York Yankees' Aaron Judge gestures as he rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run, his 62nd of the season, during the first inning in the second baseball game of a doubleheader against the Texas Rangers in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2022. With the home run, Judge set the AL record for home runs in a season, passing Roger Maris.
(AP Photo/LM Otero)
Rachael Millanta @rachaelmillanta Oct 10, 2022, 4:00 PM
  • The Division Series is the second round of the MLB postseason.
  • The New York Yankees will meet the Cleveland Guardians for a five-game series.
  • The AL Division Series is Oct. 11‑17, 2022.
  • The winner of this series will advance to the AL Championship Series.

The Wild Card Series is out of the way, and the MLB playoffs will continue on Tuesday, October 11, with the Division Series. Under the new postseason format, the top two regular-season division winners from each league received a bye in the first round. These teams will return to face the winners of the Wild Card Series — two from each league — to decide who will continue on in the playoffs.

In the AL, the Guardians will take on the Yankees for a five-game Division Series split between Yankee Stadium in New York (Games 1, 2, and 5) and Progressive Field in Cleveland (Games 3 and 4). The winner of this matchup will advance to the AL Championship Series to take on the winner of the Mariners-Astros series. 

Guardians vs. Yankees Series Schedule

GAMEDATETIMEFIELD
Game 1Tuesday, Oct. 117:37 p.m.Yankee Stadium
Game 2Thursday, Oct. 137:37 p.m.Yankee Stadium
Game 3Saturday, Oct. 157:37 p.m.Progressive Field
Game 4Sunday, Oct. 167:07 p.m.Progressive Field
Game 5Monday, Oct. 177:37 p.m.Yankee Stadium

Odds to Win AL Division Series (as of Oct. 10):

  • Guardians +180 to win
  • Yankees -225 to win

Total Series Games Over/Under (as of Oct. 10):

  • Over 3.5 (-300)
  • Under 3.5 (+240)
  • Over 4.5 (+160)
  • Under 4.5 (-200)

Guardians vs. Yankees Series Prediction

I predict the Yankees will win the AL Division Series against the Guardians in four games.

As the second-ranked division winner in the AL, the Yankees received a bye in the Wild Card round, so this will be their first appearance in the 2022 playoffs. 

New York’s season has been inundated with headlines as fans across the world watched Aaron Judge break the single-season home run record with 62 homers. Still, Judge certainly isn’t the only reason the Yankees are a team on a mission.

The Yankees had an outstanding first half of the season, even spurring thoughts they could contend as one of the greatest Yankees teams to ever play. The season’s second half wasn’t so kind, but the team found their feet again after a brief losing streak, finishing with a record of 99-63 to silence even the most judgmental critics.

Even aside from Judge having a career season at the plate and Gerrit Cole becoming the first pitcher in franchise history to strike out over 250 batters in a single season, the Yankees lineup is stacked with talent. From Luis Severino and Nestor Cortés on the mound, to a seemingly endless list of power hitters across the diamond, the Yankees are ready for the postseason.

The Guardians advanced to the playoffs as the winner of the AL Central, but considering the division was a race to the bottom for most of the year, that isn’t the achievement it sounds like. 

The team’s winning ways didn’t come until the second half of the season — just soon enough to break away from their division rivals and put them in a competitive position for the postseason. 

In the Wild Card Series, the Guardians beat the Tampa Bay Rays in two games, scoring 2-1 and 1-0 victories in the first and second games, respectively. The second and final game of the series went 15 innings before either team recorded a single run, and while admittedly showing a lot of stamina, the offense will need to step up if the Guardians are hoping to advance any further in the playoffs.

Throughout the regular season, the Guardians and Yankees met six times and the Yankees won five games. The Guardians’ only win was at home, which doesn’t bode well for them considering the series starts in New York.

Personally, I didn’t think the Guardians would advance as far as they have, and now facing the Yankees, their time in the playoffs will likely come to an abrupt end very soon. 

This is likely to be one of the least competitive matchups of the Division Series, but hey — anything can happen in the postseason.

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record — Regular Season

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 72-90 against the Run Line (-20.25 Units / -10.72% ROI).

  • 99-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -0.21% ROI
  • 76-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.75 Units / -7.18% ROI
  • 81-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -1.7% ROI

Yankees Over/Under Record — Regular Season

In the 2022 regular season, the Yankees hit the over 77 times, the under 81 times, and pushed 4.

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record — Regular Season

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 86-76 against the Run Line (+7.85 Units / 3.9% ROI).

  • 92-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.8 Units / 9.61% ROI
  • 75-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.6 Units / -5.95% ROI
  • 78-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.6 Units / -2.57% ROI

Guardians Over/Under Record — Regular Season

In the 2022 regular season, the Guardians hit the over 76 times, the under 78 times, and pushed 8.

Guardians Over/Under Record — Postseason

In the 2022 postseason, the Guardians have hit the over 0 times, the under 2 times, and pushed 0.

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About the Author

Rachael Millanta

Read More @rachaelmillanta

Rachael Millanta is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM focusing on Major League Baseball. Her work has been published in SB Nation, McSweeney’s Internet Tendency and Slackjaw Humor. Originally from Sydney, Australia, Rachael now resides in Chicago, Illinois.

Rachael Millanta is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM focusing on Major League Baseball. Her work has been published in SB Nation, McSweeney’s Internet Tendency and Slackjaw Humor. Originally from Sydney, Australia, Rachael now resides in Chicago, Illinois.