- The Yankees (71-39) are -130 favorites vs the Mariners (59-52)
- Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole (9-4), 3.56 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (5-4), 2.94 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Yankees (-130) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (+105) on Tuesday, August 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Yankees vs Mariners Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Yankees are 71-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 55-56 ATS.
Yankees vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +135 | O 7 -115 | -130 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -165 | U 7 -105 | +105 |
Yankees vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 59.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 38 away games (+12.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+10.65 Units / 57% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 37 away games (+10.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.20 Units / 88% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.85 Units / 77% ROI)
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 44 games at home (+20.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 53 of his last 78 games (+14.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+11.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 28 games (+11.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 46 games at home (+9.65 Units / 9% ROI)
Mariners vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Andrew Benintendi | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Mariners vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Andrew Benintendi | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
Mariners vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Andrew Benintendi | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Mariners vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -160 |
| Gerrit Cole | 7.5 -155 | 7.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 29 games (+13.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 100 games (+10.05 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 56 games (+10.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 away games (+0.93 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+0.60 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 43 games (+17.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+10.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 30 of their last 52 games (+9.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.37 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 43 games (+1.80 Units / 3% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 52-58 against the Run Line (-7.8 Units / -6.07% ROI).
- 71-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.65 Units / 3.25% ROI
- 55-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -1.11% ROI
- 51-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.45 Units / -7.8% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 55-56 against the Run Line (-9.5 Units / -6.42% ROI).
- 59-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.5 Units / 5.64% ROI
- 53-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.6 Units / -4.6% ROI
- 54-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.15 Units / -3.37% ROI
Gerrit Cole: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 34% (361/1,047) against Gerrit Cole this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (247/626) against Gerrit Cole in non-two strike counts this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has located his fastball away 62% of the time (667/1,077) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of 39% (84/213) against Gerrit Cole when he’s behind in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 48% (36 SO in 75 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has located his fastball up for a strike just 52% (569/1,095) of the time since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 60% — fourth Percentile.
Luis Castillo has at least 6 strikeouts in each of his last eight games — Gerrit Cole has the longest active streak at 10.
Opponents are hitting just .134 (11-for-82) against Luis Castillo when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .239 — 99th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Yankees are 8-24 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Yankees are 41-15 (.732) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Yankees are 49-9 (.845) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Yankees are 30-24 (.556) on the road this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Mariners are 44-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Mariners are 27-6 (.818) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Mariners are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 6-42 (.125) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are slugging 1.122 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .544.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .761 (3,196 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .694.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.260 (785 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.064.
The Yankees have scored 1.85 runs per game (203/110) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.39.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .163 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .220 at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mariners hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Mariners pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Mariners have won 36% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mariners vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Back, D10
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
- Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, Day-to-Day
- Kenneth Giles (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
- Diego Castillo (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
- Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): Wrist, D10
- Matthew Boyd (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Jesse Winker (Mariners): Back, Day-to-Day
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Achilles, D10
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Back, Day-to-Day
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Foot, D10
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D60
- Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
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