- The Yankees are -170 favorites vs the Marlins
- Yankees vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Yankees / Marlins TV Channel: YES | FDFL | WBFS
The New York Yankees (-175) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+145) on Friday, August 1, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Miami, FL, FL.
This season, the Yankees are 60-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 64-43 ATS.
Yankees vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Rodon 11-7, 3.19 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Janson Junk 5-2, 3.30 ERA
Yankees vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 -105 | O 8 -120 | -175 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -115 | U 8 +100 | +145 |
Yankees vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s MLB game with 59.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+24.20 Units / 303% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Walks Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+14.55 Units / 52% ROI)
- Heriberto Hernandez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+12.20 Units / 305% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.30 Units / 22% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 27 games (+12.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+4.96 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 20 games (+2.20 Units / 9% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 43 games (+20.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 70 games (+19.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 88 games (+16.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 67 games (+13.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+11.25 Units / 18% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 50-59 against the Run Line (-10.45 Units / -8.25% ROI).
- 60-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.95 Units / -8.47% ROI
- 49-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.55 Units / -8.86% ROI
- 55-49 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.17 Units / 0.97% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 64-43 against the Run Line (+11.55 Units / 8.03% ROI).
- 52-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.55 Units / 10.22% ROI
- 48-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.45 Units / -13.04% ROI
- 57-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.25 Units / 3.63% ROI
Marlins vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ryan McMahon (NYY) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Marlins vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jasson Dominguez (NYY) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Marlins vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ryan McMahon (NYY) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon (NYY) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
| Janson Junk (MIA) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .189 (89-for-472) against Carlos Rodon this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .179 (14-for-78) against Carlos Rodon’s low fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .268 — 94th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has a in-zone of just 36% (232/651) in two strike counts this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has allowed a slugging percentage of just .218 (17 Total Bases / 78 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .408 — 98th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Janson Junk has walked 2% of batters this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 99th Percentile.
Janson Junk has not allowed a home run in any of the last 30.1 innings he’s appeared — Daysbel Hernandez has the longest active streak at 54.1.
Hitters have swung at 55% of Janson Junk’s pitches (468/858) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 98th Percentile.
Janson Junk has allowed three-ball counts to 11% of batters he faced (27/241 PA’s) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 99th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Yankees are 76-58 (.567) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .467.
The Yankees were 76-4 (.950) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Yankees are 71-25 (.740) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Marlins are just 54-80 (.403) at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins are 16-2 (.889) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Marlins are 7-42 (.143) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters are slugging .707 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .581.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 11% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have a swing rate of just 44% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are averaging just 3.75 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
The Marlins are batting .279 against right-handed relievers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Marlins hitters are averaging just 3.73 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.86.
Marlins hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have a in-zone of just 48% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Yankees pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 41% of the time over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Batters facing the Marlins pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 41% of the time over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
More MLB Reading:
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