- The Marlins are -155 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees starting pitcher: –
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Yankees (+130) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-155) on Saturday, August 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Yankees vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 60-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 52-65 ATS.
Yankees vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -165 | O 7.5 -120 | +130 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +135 | U 7.5 +100 | -155 |
Yankees vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 73.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Bauers has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 away games (+12.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Singles Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Ben Rortvedt has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.55 Units / 63% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Gerrit Cole has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.95 Units / 74% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 24 games at home (+15.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+14.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+12.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 27 games (+12.10 Units / 45% ROI)
Marlins vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 |
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Marlins vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Marlins vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Marlins vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 6.5 -145 | 6.5 +110 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games (+12.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 72 games (+3.65 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 86 games (+3.55 Units / 3% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.29 Units / 12% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.03 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 54 games (+8.34 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 37 games at home (+5.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+4.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 58 games at home (+4.25 Units / 7% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 59-57 against the Run Line (-0.1 Units / -0.07% ROI).
- 60-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.95 Units / -3.9% ROI
- 52-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.85 Units / -10.88% ROI
- 60-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.55 Units / 1.99% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 52-65 against the Run Line (-25.75 Units / -16.58% ROI).
- 60-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -2.05% ROI
- 52-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.75 Units / -10.11% ROI
- 59-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.45 Units / 1.14% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 18% (91/515) versus Chris Bassitt in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 9% (5/55) against Chris Bassitt on curveballs in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 18% (73/408) versus Chris Bassitt on pitches in the strike zone in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Chris Bassitt allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.7 MPH (511 batted balls) in 2022 — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.3 — 97th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (1,760/2,435) against right-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (733/1,015) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of 57% (579/1,015) against Sandy Alcantara this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 71% (450/629) in two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 37-37 (.500) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .358.
The Yankees are 28-62 (.311) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Yankees are 16-81 (.165) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Marlins are 12-126 (.087) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Marlins are just 5-28 (.152) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
The Marlins are just 89-23 (.795) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Marlins are just 15-12 (.556) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .688.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have pulled 51% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of just .303 (2,228 PA’s) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
The Yankees are batting just .324 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Yankees hitters have drawn 247 walks in 2,415 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins are batting .303 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters have 72 extra-base hits out of 272 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .210 against Yankees pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Yankees have allowed 1.03 runs per game (119/116) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.35.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 21% against Yankees pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Rib, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Calf, D60
- David LeMahieu (Yankees): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Hamstring, D15
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Wrist, D60
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Concussion, D10
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
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