- The Yankees are +100 favorites vs the Mets
- Yankees vs Mets Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Yankees / Mets TV Channel: YES | SNY | MLBN
The New York Yankees (+105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-125) on Friday, July 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens, NY.
This season, the Yankees are 48-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 45-43 ATS.
Yankees vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman 1-1, 8.17 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Paul Blackburn 0-3, 7.72 ERA
Yankees vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -210 | O 9.5 -120 | +105 |
| Mets | -1.5 +160 | U 9.5 +100 | -125 |
Yankees vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+11.45 Units / 143% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jasson Dominguez has hit the Walks Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ben Rice has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Oswald Peraza has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Torrens has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ronny Mauricio has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+10.75 Units / 215% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Walks Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Luis Torrens has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 24% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 72 games (+17.67 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 79 games (+8.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 38 away games (+3.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 47 of their last 87 games (+0.60 Units / 0% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+11.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 44 games at home (+10.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 42 games at home (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 46 games (+7.95 Units / 15% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 39-48 against the Run Line (-10.65 Units / -10.59% ROI).
- 48-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.25 Units / -9.66% ROI
- 35-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.9 Units / -18.87% ROI
- 49-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.62 Units / 11% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 45-43 against the Run Line (+1.09 Units / 0.96% ROI).
- 50-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 0.29% ROI
- 38-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.25 Units / -15.63% ROI
- 48-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.25 Units / 6.5% ROI
Mets vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Luis Torrens (NYM) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Mets vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Mets vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Hagenman (NYM) | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
| Marcus Stroman (NYY) | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -145 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marcus Stroman has thrown just 40% of his pitches in the strike zone (604/1,499) against right-handed batters since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 50% — first Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has a strike rate of just 60% (904/1,499) against right-handed batters since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .353 (60-for-170) against Marcus Stroman since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: .245 — first Percentile.
Marcus Stroman located 61% of his pitches away (1,616/2,667) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 29% (87/295) against Paul Blackburn since the 2023 season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (172/616) against Paul Blackburn since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of 37% (30/82) versus Paul Blackburn on sliders in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 31% (32/102) against Paul Blackburn on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Yankees are 56-30 (.651) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Mets (Ranks seventh runs allowed) today.
The Yankees are 19-9 (.679) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Mets (Ranks seventh runs allowed) today.
The Yankees are just 0-34 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Yankees are 72-53 (.576) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .469.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Mets are 22-10 (.688) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 29-20 (.592) after a win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .505.
The Mets are 6-2 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 12% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 11% of their PA’s against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have a swing rate of just 44% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .181 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Mets are batting just .124 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .148.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .214 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Mets hitters have a swing rate of 64% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 13% of batters over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Mets pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 43% of the time over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Mets pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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