- The Yankees are -150 favorites vs the Mets
- Yankees vs Mets Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Yankees / Mets TV Channel: YES | FS1 | SNY
The New York Yankees (-145) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+120) on Saturday, July 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens, NY.
This season, the Yankees are 48-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 46-43 ATS.
Yankees vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Rodon 9-5, 2.96 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 0-1, 6.00 ERA
Yankees vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +115 | O 9 -120 | -145 |
| Mets | +1.5 -140 | U 9 +100 | +120 |
Yankees vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Rodon has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Carlos Rodon has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Carlos Rodon has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- Carlos Rodon has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Carlos Rodon has hit the Earned Runs Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+3.80 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Frankie Montas has hit the Strikeouts Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games (+6.00 Units / 94% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 80% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
Mets Best Bets Today:
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 39-49 against the Run Line (-10.65 Units / -10.59% ROI).
- 48-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.25 Units / -9.66% ROI
- 36-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.9 Units / -18.87% ROI
- 49-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.62 Units / 11% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 46-43 against the Run Line (+1.09 Units / 0.96% ROI).
- 51-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 0.29% ROI
- 39-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.25 Units / -15.63% ROI
- 48-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.25 Units / 6.5% ROI
Mets vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
Mets vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jasson Dominguez (NYY) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
Mets vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Mets vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Frankie Montas (NYM) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
| Carlos Rodon (NYY) | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .224 (34-for-152) against Carlos Rodon in non-two strike counts this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .322 — 100th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has thrown just 44% of his pitches in the strike zone (583/1,336) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 35% (104/301) against Carlos Rodon this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has allowed an OBP of just .200 (75 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .307 — 97th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Frankie Montas threw his off-speed pitches for a strike just 54% (409/763) of the time in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Frankie Montas walked 22 of 180 batters (12%) versus the bottom of the order in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 53% (51/96) against Frankie Montas when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 0 Percentile.
Frankie Montas has allowed a slugging percentage of .467 (77 Total Bases / 165 ABs) versus the bottom of the order since last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: .358 — fourth Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Yankees are 56-31 (.644) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Mets (Ranks sixth runs allowed) today.
The Yankees are 19-10 (.655) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Mets (Ranks sixth runs allowed) today.
The Yankees are 72-54 (.571) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .469.
The Yankees are 115-11 (.913) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .862.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are just 0-33 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Mets are 32-13 (.711) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .548.
The Mets are just 6-13 (.316) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Yankees (Ranks 10th runs allowed) today.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 12% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have a swing rate of just 44% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 11% of their PA’s against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .180 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Mets are batting just .123 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .148.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .760 (2,559 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 71% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Yankees pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 12% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Mets pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 43% of the time over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 26% against Mets pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
More MLB Reading:
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