- The Yankees are -210 favorites vs the Mets
- Yankees vs Mets Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Yankees / Mets TV Channel: SNY | YES
The New York Yankees (-190) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+155) on Sunday, July 6, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, Queens, NY.
This season, the Yankees are 48-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 47-43 ATS.
Yankees vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Max Fried 10-2, 2.13 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Chris Devenski 0-0, 3.38 ERA
Yankees vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 -120 | O 9 -118 | -190 |
| Mets | +1.5 +100 | U 9 -102 | +155 |
Yankees vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 64.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (+14.85 Units / 149% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Ben Rice has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Torrens has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 20 games (+17.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+15.10 Units / 378% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+12.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- Luis Torrens has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+11.10 Units / 53% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+10.70 Units / 43% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games (+15.37 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 81 games (+6.00 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 40 away games (+3.60 Units / 7% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 46 games at home (+12.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games at home (+11.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+10.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+9.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.30 Units / 36% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 39-50 against the Run Line (-12.65 Units / -12.34% ROI).
- 48-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.8 Units / -11.19% ROI
- 37-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.9 Units / -16.4% ROI
- 49-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.32 Units / 8.41% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 47-43 against the Run Line (+3.09 Units / 2.65% ROI).
- 52-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.65 Units / 1.9% ROI
- 40-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.25 Units / -13.3% ROI
- 48-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.95 Units / 4.01% ROI
Mets vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -225 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -550 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Mets vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| DJ LeMahieu (NYY) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Mets vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Mets vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Fried (NYY) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Chris Devenski (TB) | 1.5 +100 | 1.5 -130 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
22 of Max Fried’s 40 breaking pitch strikeouts (55%) have been backdoor this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
22 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — tied for most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 62% (113/183) against Max Fried in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 59% (286/483) against Max Fried in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Devenski allowed an OBP of just .152 (92 PA’s) with two-strikes in 2023 — 2nd best among AL Relievers; League Avg: .239 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents batted .533 (8-for-15) against Chris Devenski on the first pitch of at-bats in 2023 — tied for 3rd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: .343 — fourth Percentile.
Chris Devenski threw his changeup 56% of the time (151/271) with runners in scoring position in 2023 — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 97th Percentile.
Chris Devenski threw his changeup 51% of the time (348/680) in 2023 — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 97th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Yankees are 56-32 (.636) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Mets (Ranks fifth runs allowed) today.
The Yankees are just 0-36 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .042.
The Yankees are 19-11 (.633) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Mets (Ranks fifth runs allowed) today.
The Yankees are 124-37 (.770) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 31-20 (.608) after a win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Mets are 6-2 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are just 0-33 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .042.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 11% of their PA’s against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have a swing rate of just 44% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 12% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters are slugging .745 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .581.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging .434 against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .213 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .179 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Mets hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of 48% against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have an ERA of 8.84 (57.0 IP) over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.17.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Batters facing the Mets pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 47% of the time this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Mets pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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