- The Yankees (65-30) are -250 favorites vs the Orioles (46-47)
- Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole (9-2), 3.01 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles (6-8), 4.76 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The New York Yankees (-250) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (+190) on Saturday, July 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+110).
The Yankees vs Orioles Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Yankees are 65-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 60-33 ATS.
Yankees vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -2.5 +110 | O 8.5 -110 | -250 |
| Orioles | +2.5 -135 | U 8.5 -110 | +190 |
Yankees vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 31 away games (+15.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+11.30 Units / 61% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 30 away games (+10.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+7.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.10 Units / 27% ROI)
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 37 games at home (+14.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+13.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+13.30 Units / 51% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+13.15 Units / 47% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 38 games (+12.65 Units / 28% ROI)
Orioles vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
Orioles vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
Orioles vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hicks | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Orioles vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Lyles | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -150 |
| Gerrit Cole | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -125 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 85 games (+18.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.00 Units / 66% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 41 games (+5.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.50 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 73 games (+22.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 73 games (+19.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 31 games (+12.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 70 games (+10.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 33 games (+9.50 Units / 28% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 46-49 against the Run Line (-4.3 Units / -3.88% ROI).
- 65-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.25 Units / 8.67% ROI
- 46-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.6 Units / -4.39% ROI
- 46-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -4.2% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 60-33 against the Run Line (+20.8 Units / 17.11% ROI).
- 46-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.95 Units / 15.52% ROI
- 42-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.1 Units / -8.02% ROI
- 47-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 0.62% ROI
Gerrit Cole: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gerrit Cole has struck out 59% (13/22) of left-handed batters he faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .141 (26-for-184) against Gerrit Cole this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 100th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has located his fastball away 62% of the time (571/914) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
54% of Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Jordan Lyles: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .698 (37 Total Bases / 53 ABs) on fastballs away this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .352 — second Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .414 (87 Total Bases / 210 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .247 — first Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OPS of .698 (233 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .472 — first Percentile.
Jordan Lyles allowed an OPS of 1.716 (16 PA’s) — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .712 — first Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Yankees are 7-18 (.280) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Yankees are 39-7 (.848) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
The Yankees are 37-12 (.755) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Yankees are 44-6 (.880) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Orioles are just 11-24 (.314) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 12-3 (.800) when scoring in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .661.
The Orioles are 34-1 (.971) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .885.
The Orioles are just 4-6 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.291 (684 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.064.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of .416 (150 PA’s) against LHP this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Yankees have a winning percentage of 76% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 42% at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Orioles hitters have 277 strikeouts in 1,099 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles hitters have drawn 233 walks in 3,170 PA’s (7%) against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 54% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.5 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.7
Yankees pitchers have walked 147 of 2,299 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.08 (1119.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
Orioles vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Kyle Bradish (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
- Félix Bautista (Orioles): Hand, Day-to-Day
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
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