- The Yankees are -125 favorites vs the Orioles
- Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole
- Orioles starting pitcher: Grayson Rodriguez
- Watch the game on MASN
The New York Yankees (-125) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (+105) on Friday, July 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Yankees vs Orioles Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 54-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 61-41 ATS.
Yankees vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 +100 | -125 |
| Orioles | +1.5 -160 | U 8.5 -120 | +105 |
Yankees vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 58.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 26 games (+15.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+12.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jake Bauers has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.65 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+11.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Kyle Bradish has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.45 Units / 77% ROI)
Orioles vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Colton Cowser | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Orioles vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Colton Cowser | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
Orioles vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Colton Cowser | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Orioles vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
| Grayson Rodriguez | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+10.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 72 games (+6.40 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 58 games (+4.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 33% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 99 games (+22.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 89 games (+18.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 31 games (+4.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 53 games (+3.45 Units / 6% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 53-49 against the Run Line (+2.75 Units / 2.18% ROI).
- 54-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -1.42% ROI
- 45-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.15 Units / -11.77% ROI
- 53-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.2 Units / 2.83% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 61-41 against the Run Line (+17.05 Units / 12.87% ROI).
- 62-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.6 Units / 17.06% ROI
- 51-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.1 Units / 3.67% ROI
- 43-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.15 Units / -11.63% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .175 (7-for-40) against Gerrit Cole on low fastballs this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .259 — 94th Percentile.
56% of Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has allowed a slugging percentage of just .302 (76 Total Bases / 252 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .397 — 95th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has allowed an OPS of just .574 (272 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .694 — 94th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Grayson Rodriguez has allowed an OPS of .909 (253 PA’s) this season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .734 — fifth Percentile.
Grayson Rodriguez has allowed a slugging percentage of .542 (123 Total Bases / 227 ABs) this season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .420 — fifth Percentile.
Grayson Rodriguez has allowed a slugging percentage of .640 (32 Total Bases / 50 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .398 — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 61% (19/31) against Grayson Rodriguez on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 36-34 (.514) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .358.
The Yankees are 14-12 (.538) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Yankees are 16-8 (.667) after a home loss this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Orioles are 60-30 (.667) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Orioles are 116-8 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Orioles are 24-15 (.615) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .481.
The Orioles are 12-6 (.667) after a road loss this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .465.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 243 walks in 2,328 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees are batting just .230 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Yankees are batting just .214 with two outs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
The Yankees have barrels in 4% of PA’s since last season (402/9,761) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are 160-102 (.608) against the run line (12.9% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
Orioles hitters have drawn 109 walks in 1,087 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Orioles are batting just .159 with two-strikes since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Orioles are batting .392 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have not walked any of the 45 batters that they have faced when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (5 games) — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .218 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .189 against Yankees pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Yankees pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .177 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Orioles pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Orioles have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Orioles vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Aaron Hicks (Orioles): Hamstring, D10
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Boyce Mullins (Orioles): Quad, D10
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Calf, D60
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Wrist, D10
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
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