- The Orioles are -125 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt
- Orioles starting pitcher: Tyler Wells
- Watch the game on FOX
The New York Yankees (+105) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-125) on Saturday, July 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Yankees vs Orioles Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 54-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 62-41 ATS.
Yankees vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -185 | O 9.5 -115 | +105 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +150 | U 9.5 -105 | -125 |
Yankees vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 58.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+16.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.65 Units / 55% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.25 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Austin Hays has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+9.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+8.10 Units / 44% ROI)
Orioles vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Billy McKinney | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Colton Cowser | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Orioles vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Billy McKinney | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Colton Cowser | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Orioles vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Billy McKinney | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Colton Cowser | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Orioles vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Wells | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Clarke Schmidt | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+11.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 73 games (+5.40 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 59 games (+5.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+2.00 Units / 20% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 100 games (+23.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 90 games (+19.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 54 games (+4.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.85 Units / 43% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 53-50 against the Run Line (+1.75 Units / 1.38% ROI).
- 54-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -2.34% ROI
- 45-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.25 Units / -12.63% ROI
- 54-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.2 Units / 3.68% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 62-41 against the Run Line (+18.05 Units / 13.48% ROI).
- 63-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.7 Units / 17.79% ROI
- 51-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 2.66% ROI
- 44-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.15 Units / -10.64% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters batted just .159 (51-for-321) against Alek Manoah in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
Alek Manoah allowed a slugging percentage of just .249 (80 Total Bases / 321 ABs) against right-handed batters in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 — 100th Percentile.
Alek Manoah allowed an OPS of just .460 (346 PA’s) against right-handed batters in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .712 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .237 (22-for-93) against Alek Manoah on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Wells has allowed a BABIP of .208 this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 100th Percentile.
Tyler Wells has thrown fastballs up 88% of the time (172/196) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 55% — 100th Percentile.
Tyler Wells has located his pitches away 59% of the time (1,054/1,775) this season — tied for highest among in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Tyler Wells has allowed a BABIP of .177 against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Yankees are 28-55 (.337) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 36-34 (.514) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .358.
The Yankees are 16-8 (.667) after a home loss this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Orioles are 107-6 (.947) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Orioles are 116-8 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Orioles are 45-13 (.776) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .642.
The Orioles are 61-30 (.670) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees are batting just .233 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Yankees hitters have drawn 243 walks in 2,329 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees are batting just .229 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Yankees hitters have a groundball batting average of just .185 against the shift this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting just .236 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Orioles hitters have put just 35% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .537 (141 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .735.
The Orioles are batting just .159 with two-strikes since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .212 against Yankees pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .191 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .228.
Yankees pitchers won 56% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .217 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .177 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Orioles pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Orioles have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Orioles vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Aaron Hicks (Orioles): Hamstring, D10
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Boyce Mullins (Orioles): Quad, D10
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Calf, D60
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Wrist, D10
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
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