Yankees vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 05, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Yankees (58-22) are -200 favorites vs the Pirates (32-47)
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon (9-1), 3.32 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: José Quintana (1-4), 3.43 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The New York Yankees (-200) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+165) on Tuesday, July 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).

The Yankees vs Pirates Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Yankees are 58-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 37-42 ATS.

Yankees vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees-1.5 -120O 9 -115-200
Pirates +1.5 +100U 9 -105+165

Yankees vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joey Gallo has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.00 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Joey Gallo has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.00 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Joey Gallo has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Jose Trevino has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+2.65 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Joey Gallo has hit the Runs Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+2.40 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+9.20 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+7.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+7.05 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.10 Units / 47% ROI)

Pirates vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bligh Madris 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Josh VanMeter 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000

Pirates vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bligh Madris 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Bryan Reynolds 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Jack Suwinski 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Josh VanMeter 0.5 -185 0.5 +125

Pirates vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bligh Madris 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Josh VanMeter 0.5 +195 0.5 -300

Pirates vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Quintana 3.5 -160 3.5 +115
Jameson Taillon 4.5 -125 4.5 -110
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 70 games (+25.20 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 79 games (+7.00 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 58 games (+6.75 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 76 games (+4.35 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 away games (+2.15 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 42 of their last 78 games (+9.00 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 38 games (+5.00 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.95 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+4.55 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 70 games (+3.90 Units / 5% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 41-39 against the Run Line (+2.55 Units / 2.76% ROI).

  • 58-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.8 Units / 14.67% ROI
  • 34-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.45 Units / -15.2% ROI
  • 43-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.95 Units / 6.77% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 37-42 against the Run Line (-10 Units / -10.14% ROI).

  • 32-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.55 Units / -3.06% ROI
  • 34-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.55 Units / -9.87% ROI
  • 39-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.4 Units / 1.6% ROI

Jameson Taillon has walked 2 of 129 batters (2%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.

Jameson Taillon has walked 11 of 348 batters (3%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .450 (18-for-40) against Jameson Taillon on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .327 — fourth Percentile.

Jameson Taillon has walked 5 of 217 right-handed batters (2%) this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

José Quintana: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jose Quintana has allowed an OPS of .911 (179 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: .625 — 0 Percentile.

Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 56% (122/217) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .317 (52-for-164) against Jose Quintana versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: .220 — 0 Percentile.

Jose Quintana has thrown his changeup for a strike just 50% (246/495) of the time since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Yankees are 6-14 (.300) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .107.

The Yankees are 24-3 (.889) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .672.

The Yankees are 33-4 (.892) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

The Yankees are 34-9 (.791) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .515.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Pirates are just 76-20 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Pirates are just 13-25 (.342) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.

The Pirates are just 22-5 (.815) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .893.

The Pirates are just 3-5 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Yankees hitters have drawn 652 walks in 6,283 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.07 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Yankees have a winning percentage of 72% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .664 (2,677 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.

The Pirates are batting just .214 with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .276 (1,381 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .308.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .225 (4,649 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Yankees pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 63% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 67% of the time at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 202 of 2,093 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 261 of 2,609 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 899 of 9,199 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 293 of 3,059 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): COVID-19, D10
  • Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Back, D10
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
  • Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.