- The Yankees are -120 favorites vs the Pirates
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luke Weaver
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis L. Ortiz
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The New York Yankees (-120) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+100) on Saturday, September 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Yankees vs Pirates Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 75-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 74-74 ATS.
Yankees vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +135 | O 9.5 -120 | -120 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -160 | U 9.5 +100 | +100 |
Yankees vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Oswald Peraza has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 46% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 24 games (+9.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+8.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Oswald Peraza has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.25 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+12.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 53% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 17 games (+10.05 Units / 59% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 45 games (+9.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+8.85 Units / 126% ROI)
Pirates vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Everson Pereira | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Pirates vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Everson Pereira | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
Pirates vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Everson Pereira | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| RBis will Liover Peguero | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Pirates vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Ortiz | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
| Luke Weaver | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 72-76 against the Run Line (-7.85 Units / -4.27% ROI).
- 75-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.8 Units / -5.01% ROI
- 67-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.25 Units / -10.01% ROI
- 76-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.25 Units / 1.38% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 74-74 against the Run Line (-17.4 Units / -8.95% ROI).
- 69-79 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.45 Units / 3.36% ROI
- 80-63 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.9 Units / 6.69% ROI
- 63-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.6 Units / -15.1% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 18% (91/515) versus Chris Bassitt in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has allowed at least one HR in each of his last seven games dating back to August 1st — Kenta Maeda has the longest active streak at 11.
Carlos Rodon has a strikeout rate of 38% (119 SO in 310 PAs) with runners in scoring position since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 187 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .244 (22-for-90) against Carlos Rodon on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: .344 — 96th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting .346 (45-for-130) against Luis Ortiz this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .251 — second Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 92.5 MPH (243 batted balls) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 89.2 — 0 Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has not allowed a home run in any of the last 20.0 innings he’s appeared — Tanner Scott has the longest active streak at 61.1.
Luis Ortiz has a strike rate of just 61% (739/1,207) this season — 15th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 64% — eighth Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Yankees are 18-15 (.545) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are just 14-26 (.350) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Yankees are 49-15 (.766) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .689.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Pirates are just 23-124 (.156) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Pirates are just 108-54 (.667) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Pirates are just 96-21 (.821) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .870.
The Pirates are just 52-56 (.481) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees are batting just .231 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Yankees are batting just .226 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Yankees are batting just .215 with two outs since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Yankees hitters are slugging .448 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 21% against Yankees pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .218 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .201 against Yankees pitchers with the shift this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Yankees pitchers won 56% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,123 of 11,918 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Pirates pitchers over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed 157 home runs this season — fewest in MLB.
Pirates vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): Achilles, D10
- Angel Perdomo (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Keynan Middleton (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Side, D15
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Anthony Misiewicz (Yankees): Head, Day-to-Day
- Albert Abreu (Yankees): Hamstring, D15
- William McKinney (Yankees): Back, D10
- Ian Hamilton (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Wrist, D60
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Concussion, D60
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Jasson Domínguez (Yankees): Elbow, D10
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