- The Yankees are -160 favorites vs the Pirates
- Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Rodón
- Pirates starting pitcher: Colin Selby
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The New York Yankees (-160) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) on Sunday, September 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Yankees vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 76-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 74-75 ATS.
Yankees vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +105 | O 8 -110 | -160 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -125 | U 8 -110 | +135 |
Yankees vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 56.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Oswald Peraza has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+10.45 Units / 49% ROI)
- Oswald Peraza has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.25 Units / 43% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 19 away games (+9.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+8.90 Units / 66% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+13.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+10.40 Units / 130% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+10.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 13 games at home (+9.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.35 Units / 44% ROI)
Pirates vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alika Williams | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
Pirates vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alika Williams | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Pirates vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alika Williams | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| RBis will Liover Peguero | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Pirates vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
| Colin Selby | 1.5 +115 | 1.5 -150 |
| Carlos Rodon | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 73-76 against the Run Line (-6.45 Units / -3.49% ROI).
- 76-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -4.48% ROI
- 67-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.25 Units / -10.56% ROI
- 77-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.25 Units / 1.97% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 74-75 against the Run Line (-19 Units / -9.69% ROI).
- 69-80 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.45 Units / 2.72% ROI
- 80-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.9 Units / 6.04% ROI
- 64-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.6 Units / -14.38% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Rodon has allowed at least one HR in each of his last seven games dating back to August 1st — Kenta Maeda has the longest active streak at 11.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (83/248) against Carlos Rodon in two-strike counts since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 45% — third Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has thrown elevated pitches 50% of the time (466/939) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has a strikeout rate of 38% (119 SO in 310 PAs) with runners in scoring position since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 188 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Colin Selby has a strikeout rate of 40% (10 SO in 25 PAs) over the last 14 days (5 games) — 10th best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (19/49) against Colin Selby over the last 14 days (5 games) — 9th best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 27% — 92nd Percentile.
Colin Selby has struck out 43% (10/23) of left-handed batters he faced over the last 30 days (11 games) — tied for 5th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Colin Selby has struck out 43% (10/23) of left-handed batters he faced over the last 30 days (11 games) — 6th best among in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 95th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Yankees are 56-32 (.636) after a home win since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Yankees are 50-15 (.769) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .689.
The Yankees are 79-40 (.664) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .572.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Pirates are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 108-54 (.667) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Pirates are 13-6 (.684) after a loss as favorites since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .583.
The Pirates are just 126-155 (.448) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees are batting just .221 against starting pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Yankees are batting just .232 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Yankees hitters have a groundball batting average of just .213 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Yankees hitters are slugging .448 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .151 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Pirates are batting just .124 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .372 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .218 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 21% against Yankees pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .230.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,130 of 11,961 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Pirates pitchers over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,736 of 18,101 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed the 2nd hardest ball in play hit (115.1 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.0).
Pirates vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): Achilles, D10
- Angel Perdomo (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Keynan Middleton (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Side, D15
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Anthony Misiewicz (Yankees): Head, D7
- Albert Abreu (Yankees): Hamstring, D15
- William McKinney (Yankees): Back, D10
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Wrist, D60
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Concussion, D60
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Jasson Domínguez (Yankees): Elbow, D10
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