- The Rays are -175 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees starting pitcher: Domingo Germán
- Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The New York Yankees (+145) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-175) on Saturday, May 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Yankees vs Rays Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 17-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 21-12 ATS.
Yankees vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -145 | O 7.5 -105 | +145 |
| Rays | -1.5 +120 | U 7.5 -115 | -175 |
Yankees vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 32 games (+10.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 30 games (+9.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+7.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- Franchy Cordero has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.15 Units / 74% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+7.15 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 31 games (+16.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 30 games (+10.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- Harold Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+10.40 Units / 116% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+10.00 Units / 62% ROI)
Rays vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Rays vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Yandy Diaz | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Rays vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Rays vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Domingo German | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -120 |
| Drew Rasmussen | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+9.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 31 games (+4.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.35 Units / 23% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 33 games (+18.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 33 games (+12.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 33 games (+12.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+10.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games (+10.30 Units / 28% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 16-17 against the Run Line (-0.3 Units / -0.78% ROI).
- 17-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -6.14% ROI
- 11-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.15 Units / -33.43% ROI
- 21-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.9 Units / 24.45% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 21-12 against the Run Line (+10.3 Units / 27.84% ROI).
- 27-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +18.5 Units / 30.35% ROI
- 18-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.45 Units / 12.21% ROI
- 12-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.1 Units / -22.41% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased 44 of Domingo German’s 79 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 56%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Domingo German has allowed a BABIP of .179 this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — 98th Percentile.
Domingo German has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike 76% (158/209) of the time this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Domingo German has a strike rate of 72% (104/144) in two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Rasmussen has a first-pitch strike rate of 73% (96/132) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — 96th Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen has allowed an OBP of .560 (25 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .312 — second Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen has a strikeout rate of 36% (9 SO in 25 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 88th Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen has allowed an OPS of 1.378 (25 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .730 — third Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Yankees are 21-35 (.375) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .197.
The Yankees are just 0-7 (.000) when underdogs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are just 7-15 (.318) when underdogs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Rays are 2-5 (.286) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Rays are 3-6 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Rays are 7-5 (.583) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Rays are 18-2 (.900) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .520.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 196 walks in 1,819 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters are slugging just .338 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Yankees are batting just .211 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of just .260 (154 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging .582 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Rays hitters are slugging .528 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .950 (261 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .741.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .877 (1,260 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 43% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Rays pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 485 of 7,135 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Shawn Armstrong (Rays): Neck, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Forearm, D15
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Kahnle (Yankees): Bicep, D60
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Shoulder, D10
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Oswald Peraza (Yankees): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Hip, D10
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D15
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
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