Yankees vs Rays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 04, 2022, 8:43 AM
  • The Yankees (79-54) are -125 favorites vs the Rays (74-57)
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Francelis Montas (4-11), 3.93 ERA
  • Rays starting pitcher: Shawn Armstrong (2-1), 4.72 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The New York Yankees (-125) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (+105) on Sunday, September 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Yankees vs Rays Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Yankees are 78-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 62-66 ATS.

Yankees vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees-1.5 +140O 7 -115-125
Rays +1.5 -165U 7 -105+105

Yankees vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday‘s matchup with 52.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Rays vs Yankees and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 12 away games (+16.55 Units / 76% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 19 away games (+12.65 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+12.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 12 away games (+12.00 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Josh Donaldson has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+9.80 Units / 29% ROI)

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+14.70 Units / 55% ROI)
  • David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+14.45 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.25 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Ji-Man Choi has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.65 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+7.35 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games (+0.70 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games at home (+9.60 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games at home (+5.55 Units / 32% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 57-73 against the Run Line (-19.5 Units / -12.8% ROI).

  • 78-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.15 Units / -2.6% ROI
  • 59-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.95 Units / -9.73% ROI
  • 66-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 0.7% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 62-66 against the Run Line (-3 Units / -1.92% ROI).

  • 71-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -1.64% ROI
  • 58-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.15 Units / -5.2% ROI
  • 61-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -2.69% ROI

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 29% (110/384) against Frankie Montas this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 84th Percentile.

Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 24% (67/277) against Frankie Montas this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

60% of Frankie Montas strikeouts are located out of the zone this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 52% — 85th Percentile.

74% of Frankie Montas’ called strikeouts are low this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — 94th Percentile.

Shawn Armstrong: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Shawn Armstrong has allowed a slugging percentage of .653 (62 Total Bases / 95 ABs) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .385 — 0 Percentile.

Shawn Armstrong has allowed a slugging percentage of .391 (45 Total Bases / 115 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — first Percentile.

Shawn Armstrong has allowed an OPS of 1.058 (111 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .714 — 0 Percentile.

Shawn Armstrong has a strike rate of 73% (192/263) in two strike counts this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 98th Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Yankees are 9-36 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Yankees are 34-10 (.773) when scoring in the first inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.

The Yankees are 25-4 (.862) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Yankees are 11-6 (.647) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Rays are 28-8 (.778) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.

The Rays are 46-8 (.852) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.

The Rays are 13-10 (.565) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rays are 75-10 (.882) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.

Yankees hitters have drawn 801 walks in 7,877 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Yankees are batting just .301 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

Yankees hitters have an OBP of .334 (3,247 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Rays have scored 1.57 runs per game (454/290) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.

Rays hitters have 831 strikeouts in 3,457 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Rays have scored 454 runs in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — most in MLB.

The Rays have a winning percentage of 59% since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.4 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.5

Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Rays pitchers have walked 744 of 10,810 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 912 of 13,022 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rays pitchers have walked 189 of 3,165 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 151 of 2,637 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D15
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Triceps, D10
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Shane McClanahan (Rays): Shoulder, D15
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
  • Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, Day-to-Day
  • Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
  • Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Groin, D15
  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Harrison Bader (Yankees): Foot, D60
  • Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Luis Gil (Yankees): Undisclosed, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D60
  • Jameson Taillon (Yankees): Forearm, Day-to-Day
  • Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
  • Albertin Chapman (Yankees): Leg, D15
  • Scott Effross (Yankees): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.