Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 10

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 10, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Yankees (61-24) are -135 favorites vs the Red Sox (46-39)
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon (9-2), 3.62 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (8-6), 3.67 ERA
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The New York Yankees (-135) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+110) on Sunday, July 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08pm EDT in Boston.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Yankees are 61-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 47-38 ATS.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees-1.5 +120O 9 -105-135
Red Sox +1.5 -145U 9 -115+110

Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s matchup with 60.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Gleyber Torres has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+5.15 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Matt Carpenter has hit the Total Bases Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.55 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Gleyber Torres has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.15 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Josh Donaldson has hit the RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.80 Units / 75% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+8.95 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+7.35 Units / 69% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+7.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 37 games at home (+7.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+5.65 Units / 113% ROI)

Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Franchy Cordero 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000

Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Franchy Cordero 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
J.D. Martinez 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Trevor Story 0.5 -225 0.5 +150

Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Franchy Cordero 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nick Pivetta 5.5 +110 5.5 -155
Jameson Taillon 4.5 -140 4.5 -105
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 75 games (+24.65 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 63 games (+5.40 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 away games (+4.60 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 81 games (+3.10 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 15 away games (+2.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 51 games (+13.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 56 games (+13.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 65 games (+10.00 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 43 of their last 78 games (+7.15 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 56 games (+4.50 Units / 7% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 43-42 against the Run Line (+1.3 Units / 1.33% ROI).

  • 61-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.25 Units / 13.5% ROI
  • 38-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.6 Units / -11.26% ROI
  • 44-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.6 Units / 2.79% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 47-38 against the Run Line (+10.65 Units / 10.11% ROI).

  • 46-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 0.73% ROI
  • 35-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.25 Units / -9.85% ROI
  • 41-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.45 Units / 3.68% ROI

Jameson Taillon has walked 5 of 220 right-handed batters (2%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .463 (19-for-41) against Jameson Taillon on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .330 — fourth Percentile.

Jameson Taillon has walked 11 of 370 batters (3%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

The average home run distance against Jameson Taillon against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 380.9 feet — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 399.7

Nicholas Pivetta: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 16% (50/305) against Nick Pivetta this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 34% (38/111) against Nick Pivetta this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 10th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 20% (164/839) against Nick Pivetta since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 27% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% (35/100) against Nick Pivetta in two-strike counts this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — seventh Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Yankees are 6-15 (.286) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .111.

The Yankees are 36-4 (.900) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .709.

The Yankees are 25-3 (.893) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .668.

The Yankees are 27-14 (.643) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .479.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Red Sox are just 131-19 (.873) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Red Sox are just 0-29 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .083.

The Red Sox are just 37-6 (.860) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .888.

The Red Sox are 24-19 (.558) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.

Yankees hitters are slugging .569 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .443.

Yankees hitters have drawn 675 walks in 6,452 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Yankees have scored 151 runs in innings 7-9 this season — most in MLB.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.265 (616 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.061.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .269 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .343 (819 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Yankees pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 62% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.5 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.8

The Yankees have won 65% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 62 of 525 batters (12%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 37 of 293 batters (13%) over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.7 MPH this season (2,093 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Connor Seabold (Red Sox): Forearm, D15
  • Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Left groin, D10
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Rafael Devers (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
  • Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.