Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 8

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 08, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Yankees (60-23) are -160 favorites vs the Red Sox (45-38)
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes (7-3), 2.43 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Connor Seabold (0-1), 8.30 ERA
  • Watch the game on Prime Video

The New York Yankees (-160) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+135) on Friday, July 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Yankees are 60-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 46-37 ATS.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees-1.5 -105O 10 -115-160
Red Sox +1.5 -115U 10 -105+135

Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s matchup with 54.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Gleyber Torres has hit the Total Bases Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.30 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Gleyber Torres has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.25 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.10 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Gleyber Torres has hit the RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.00 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Joey Gallo has hit the RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+3.75 Units / 23% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+9.10 Units / 29% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.70 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+7.20 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 35 games at home (+5.15 Units / 9% ROI)

Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Christian Arroyo 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +290 0.5 -500

Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Christian Arroyo 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Christian Vazquez 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
J.D. Martinez 1.5 +180 1.5 -275

Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Christian Arroyo 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +130 0.5 -185

Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nestor Cortes 5.5 +100 5.5 -145
Connor Seabold 3.5 -145 3.5 +100
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 73 games (+25.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 82 games (+5.90 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 61 games (+5.60 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 79 games (+3.15 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 away games (+2.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 49 games (+13.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 54 games (+12.70 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 63 games (+10.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 42 of their last 76 games (+7.35 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 82 games (+6.75 Units / 7% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 42-41 against the Run Line (+1.35 Units / 1.41% ROI).

  • 60-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.9 Units / 14.2% ROI
  • 36-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.6 Units / -13.7% ROI
  • 44-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.85 Units / 5.32% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 46-37 against the Run Line (+10.85 Units / 10.53% ROI).

  • 45-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 0.28% ROI
  • 33-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.25 Units / -12.26% ROI
  • 41-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.7 Units / 6.23% ROI

15 of Nestor Cortes’ breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 60% of the time (200/332) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 54% of the time (306/564) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total SL; League Avg: 19% — 98th Percentile.

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 54% of the time (380/706) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.

Connor Seabold: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Connor Seabold has limited playing time.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Yankees are 6-15 (.286) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .109.

The Yankees are 24-3 (.889) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .669.

The Yankees are 47-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .919.

The Yankees are 35-4 (.897) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Red Sox are just 1-28 (.034) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .109.

The Red Sox are just 37-6 (.860) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .891.

The Red Sox are just 5-15 (.250) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.

The Red Sox are just 40-4 (.909) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .919.

The Yankees are batting just .291 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Yankees hitters have drawn 88 walks in 849 PA’s (10%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees hitters are slugging .574 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.

The Yankees have scored 1.89 runs per game (157/83) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.39.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .167.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .807 (4,542 PA’s) at home since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .734.

The Yankees have won 65% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 67% of the time at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Yankees pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.5 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.8

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 38 of 277 batters (14%) over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 34% of their games this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Red Sox pitchers have won 39% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Aaron Judge (Yankees): Lower Body, Day-to-Day
  • Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
  • Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.