- The Yankees (61-23) are -165 favorites vs the Red Sox (45-39)
- Yankees starting pitcher: Jordan Montgomery (3-2), 3.18 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford (2-2), 5.04 ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The New York Yankees (-165) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+140) on Saturday, July 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Boston.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Yankees are 61-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 46-38 ATS.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 -110 | O 9 -105 | -165 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -110 | U 9 -115 | +140 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s matchup with 59.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.30 Units / 65% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.25 Units / 62% ROI)
- Matt Carpenter has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.55 Units / 59% ROI)
- Matt Carpenter has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+3.45 Units / 69% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+8.35 Units / 86% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+6.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+6.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 36 games at home (+6.15 Units / 10% ROI)
Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Christian Vazquez | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Christian Vazquez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Vazquez | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kutter Crawford | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -160 |
| Jordan Montgomery | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 74 games (+26.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 83 games (+4.75 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 62 games (+4.40 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 80 games (+4.15 Units / 4% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 away games (+3.95 Units / 24% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 50 games (+12.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 55 games (+11.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+9.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+8.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 83 games (+5.60 Units / 6% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 43-41 against the Run Line (+2.35 Units / 2.42% ROI).
- 61-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.9 Units / 14.7% ROI
- 37-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.6 Units / -12.47% ROI
- 44-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.7 Units / 4.01% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 46-38 against the Run Line (+9.65 Units / 9.26% ROI).
- 45-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.7 Units / -0.65% ROI
- 34-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.25 Units / -11.05% ROI
- 41-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 4.91% ROI
Jordan Montgomery: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (52/134) against Jordan Montgomery on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has struck out just 17% (54/312) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 13th Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has walked 17 of 364 batters (5%) this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 91st Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has a strike rate of just 60% (214/359) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — fourth Percentile.
Kutter Crawford: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kutter Crawford has not induced opposing hitters to ground into a double play in 14 opportunities (0%) this season — tied for lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 10% — 11th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (107/249) vs left-handed batters this season — 9th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 31% — 89th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has thrown elevated pitches 44% of the time (53/121) when behind in the count this season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 29% — 95th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford allowed an OPS of just .255 (20 PA’s) — 13th best among among 225 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .672 — 94th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are 34-9 (.791) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Yankees are 36-4 (.900) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Yankees are 6-15 (.286) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .109.
The Yankees are 9-3 (.750) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are just 0-29 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .083.
The Red Sox are just 37-6 (.860) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .891.
The Red Sox are just 1-29 (.033) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .109.
The Red Sox are 24-19 (.558) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .482.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are slugging .571 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
The Yankees are batting just .294 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Yankees have scored 151 runs in late innings this season — most in MLB.
The Yankees have a winning percentage of 73% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .763 (6,413 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .167.
Red Sox hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 2,563 of their 9,359 plate appearances (27%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 62% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Yankees pitchers have won 54% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.5 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.8
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 62 of 521 batters (12%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 35 of 285 batters (12%) over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.7 MPH (2,093 batted balls) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
- Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Connor Seabold (Red Sox): Forearm, Day-to-Day
- Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
- Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Rafael Devers (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Back, Day-to-Day
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
- Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
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