Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 9

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 09, 2022, 3:36 PM
  • The Yankees (61-23) are -165 favorites vs the Red Sox (45-39)
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Jordan Montgomery (3-2), 3.18 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford (2-2), 5.04 ERA
  • Watch the game on FOX

The New York Yankees (-165) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+140) on Saturday, July 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Boston.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Yankees are 61-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 46-38 ATS.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees-1.5 -110O 9 -105-165
Red Sox +1.5 -110U 9 -115+140

Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s matchup with 59.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.90 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Gleyber Torres has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.30 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Gleyber Torres has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.25 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Matt Carpenter has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.55 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Matt Carpenter has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+3.45 Units / 69% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+8.35 Units / 86% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+6.45 Units / 45% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+6.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 36 games at home (+6.15 Units / 10% ROI)

Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +900 0.5 -10000
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Jarren Duran 0.5 +1000 0.5

Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Christian Vazquez 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
J.D. Martinez 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Jarren Duran 0.5 -160 0.5 +110

Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +195 0.5 -275
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Jarren Duran 0.5 +280 0.5 -450

Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kutter Crawford 4.5 +115 4.5 -160
Jordan Montgomery 4.5 -165 4.5 +120
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 74 games (+26.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 83 games (+4.75 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 62 games (+4.40 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 80 games (+4.15 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 away games (+3.95 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 50 games (+12.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 55 games (+11.70 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+9.00 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+8.05 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 83 games (+5.60 Units / 6% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 43-41 against the Run Line (+2.35 Units / 2.42% ROI).

  • 61-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.9 Units / 14.7% ROI
  • 37-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.6 Units / -12.47% ROI
  • 44-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.7 Units / 4.01% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 46-38 against the Run Line (+9.65 Units / 9.26% ROI).

  • 45-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.7 Units / -0.65% ROI
  • 34-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.25 Units / -11.05% ROI
  • 41-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 4.91% ROI

Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (52/134) against Jordan Montgomery on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.

Jordan Montgomery has struck out just 17% (54/312) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 13th Percentile.

Jordan Montgomery has walked 17 of 364 batters (5%) this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 91st Percentile.

Jordan Montgomery has a strike rate of just 60% (214/359) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — fourth Percentile.

Kutter Crawford: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kutter Crawford has not induced opposing hitters to ground into a double play in 14 opportunities (0%) this season — tied for lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 10% — 11th Percentile.

Kutter Crawford has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (107/249) vs left-handed batters this season — 9th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 31% — 89th Percentile.

Kutter Crawford has thrown elevated pitches 44% of the time (53/121) when behind in the count this season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 29% — 95th Percentile.

Kutter Crawford allowed an OPS of just .255 (20 PA’s) — 13th best among among 225 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .672 — 94th Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Yankees are 34-9 (.791) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .517.

The Yankees are 36-4 (.900) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

The Yankees are 6-15 (.286) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .109.

The Yankees are 9-3 (.750) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .497.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Red Sox are just 0-29 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .083.

The Red Sox are just 37-6 (.860) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .891.

The Red Sox are just 1-29 (.033) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .109.

The Red Sox are 24-19 (.558) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .482.

Yankees hitters are slugging .571 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .444.

The Yankees are batting just .294 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Yankees have scored 151 runs in late innings this season — most in MLB.

The Yankees have a winning percentage of 73% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .763 (6,413 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .167.

Red Sox hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 2,563 of their 9,359 plate appearances (27%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Yankees pitchers have won 64% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 62% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Yankees pitchers have won 54% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.5 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.8

Red Sox pitchers have walked 62 of 521 batters (12%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 35 of 285 batters (12%) over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.7 MPH (2,093 batted balls) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Connor Seabold (Red Sox): Forearm, Day-to-Day
  • Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Rafael Devers (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Anthony Rizzo (Yankees): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
  • Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.