Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 14

Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers looks on during the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles, Sept. 29, 2023, in Baltimore. With the Red Sox ramping up at the start of spring training, Devers made it clear Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2024, that he felt the franchise should have done more to improve the roster over the winter.
AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
  • The Yankees are -165 favorites vs the Red Sox
  • Yankees vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
  • Yankees / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | YES | ESPN+ | MLBN

The New York Yankees (-165) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+140) on Friday, June 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:30pm EDT in Boston, MA.

This season, the Yankees are 49-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 32-37 ATS.

Yankees vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Gil 8-1, 2.04 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 6-3, 4.81 ERA

Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees-1.5 -105O 9.5 -120-165
Red Sox +1.5 -115U 9.5 +100+140

Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s MLB game with 63.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Aaron Judge has hit the Home Runs Over in 17 of his last 35 games (+19.95 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 37 games (+19.40 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 37 games (+18.05 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 37 games (+16.75 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+12.15 Units / 30% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+16.90 Units / 32% ROI)
  • David Hamilton has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+16.60 Units / 415% ROI)
  • Rob Refsnyder has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.75 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+10.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • David Hamilton has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.45 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 37 games (+23.80 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 37 games (+23.80 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 40 games (+21.45 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 48 games (+18.79 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 71 games (+18.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+8.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.60 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+5.70 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 69 games (+5.05 Units / 6% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 43-28 against the Run Line (+20.1 Units / 23.56% ROI).

  • 49-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +18.3 Units / 17.52% ROI
  • 33-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.65 Units / -8.49% ROI
  • 36-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -0.13% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 32-37 against the Run Line (-11.1 Units / -11.81% ROI).

  • 35-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -3.44% ROI
  • 30-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.95 Units / -10.47% ROI
  • 35-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.45 Units / 3.22% ROI

Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge (NYY) 0.5 +230 0.5 -300
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) 0.5 +375 0.5 -500
Juan Soto (NYY) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Rafael Devers (BOS) 0.5 +425 0.5 -600
Tyler O'Neill (BOS) 0.5 +525 0.5 -750

Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Juan Soto (NYY) 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Jose Trevino (NYY) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Anthony Rizzo (NYY) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) 0.5 -250 0.5 +195
Rafael Devers (BOS) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165

Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge (NYY) 0.5 -120 0.5 -110
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) 0.5 +110 0.5 -145
Rafael Devers (BOS) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Juan Soto (NYY) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Alex Verdugo (NYY) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185

Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brayan Bello (BOS) 4.5 -115 4.5 -110
Luis Gil (NYY) 6.5 -105 6.5 -125

Opponents are hitting just .137 (35-for-255) against Luis Gil this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .144 (21-for-146) against Luis Gil this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 98th Percentile.

Luis Gil has allowed a slugging percentage of just .243 (62 Total Bases / 255 ABs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .079 (12-for-151) against Luis Gil with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .161 — 100th Percentile.

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (70/422) against Brayan Bello since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (149/244) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .362 (17-for-47) against Brayan Bello over the last 14 days — 2nd highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .237 — third Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (250/425) against Brayan Bello since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Yankees are 9-5 (.643) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.

The Yankees are 8-11 (.421) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .188.

The Yankees are 24-19 (.558) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.

The Yankees are 18-7 (.720) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .461.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Red Sox are just 1-29 (.033) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .112.

The Red Sox are just 1-12 (.077) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.

The Red Sox are just 7-30 (.189) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.

The Red Sox are just 48-163 (.227) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of .790 (2,018 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .697.

Yankees hitters are slugging .741 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .553.

Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 1,992 of their 8,669 plate appearances (23%) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Yankees hitters are slugging .454 against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .387.

team hitters – home

Yankees pitchers have won 78% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Yankees pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 24% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Yankees have won 61% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Yankees pitchers have won 53% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 179 of 2,560 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 11 of 108 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH this season (1,705 balls in play) — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9

Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
  • Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
  • Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
  • Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
  • Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
  • Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
  • Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
  • Anthony Volpe (New York Yankees): Illness, Day-To-Day
  • Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
  • Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • McKinley Moore (New York Yankees): Knee, 15-Day IL
  • Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
  • DJ LeMahieu (New York Yankees): Foot, 10-Day IL
  • Oscar Gonzalez (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
  • Jorbit Vivas (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
  • Tommy Kahnle (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Oswald Peraza (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 10-Day IL

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.