- The Red Sox are -125 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees starting pitcher: Domingo Germán
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Yankees (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on Friday, June 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 39-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 34-35 ATS.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -185 | O 10 -115 | +105 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +150 | U 10 -105 | -125 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 56.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Yankees vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.20 Units / 65% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+8.70 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Reese McGuire has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+8.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 games (+7.70 Units / 71% ROI)
Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -200 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Domingo German | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| Tanner Houck | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games (+12.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 away games (+9.25 Units / 49% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 67 games (+8.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 31 away games (+5.30 Units / 14% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+10.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 56 games (+2.25 Units / 3% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 38-31 against the Run Line (+9 Units / 10.78% ROI).
- 39-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.25 Units / 5.68% ROI
- 30-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.35 Units / -13.75% ROI
- 37-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.8 Units / 4.95% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 34-35 against the Run Line (-6.95 Units / -7.62% ROI).
- 34-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.5 Units / -3.06% ROI
- 37-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.8 Units / 5.04% ROI
- 30-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.5 Units / -15% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 52% (86/164) against Domingo German with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 40% of the time (82/207) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total CB; League Avg: 11% — 98th Percentile.
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (401/976) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 97th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .156 (20-for-128) against Domingo German this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 31% (34/109) against Tanner Houck on breaking pitches since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Tanner Houck had a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (127/244) in 2022 — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed an OPS of just .555 (131 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: .731 — 93rd Percentile.
8 of Tanner Houck’s 29 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) were backdoor in 2022 — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are 27-42 (.391) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Yankees are 32-28 (.533) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .352.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 12-8 (.600) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are just 7-16 (.304) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 6-29 (.171) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Red Sox are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 27-2 (.931) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .894.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 565 of their 2,534 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 216 walks in 2,035 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Games involving the Yankees have hit UNDER in 81% of their games (53.6% ROI) after a home loss this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Yankees are 27-42 (.391) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .356 (1,406 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .396 (268 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .355 (964 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .340 (2,300 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 41% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Yankees pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Yankees pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.20 (846.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.06.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 43 of 609 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Red Sox pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 357 barreled balls since last season — 2nd most in MLB.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Toe, D10
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Ian Hamilton (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Yankees): Hip, D10
Bet now on Yankees vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
