- The Red Sox are -140 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello
- Watch the game on ESPN
The New York Yankees (+120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-145) on Sunday, June 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Yankees are 39-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 35-35 ATS.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -165 | O 9 +100 | +120 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +135 | U 9 -120 | -145 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 63.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Yankees and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+9.40 Units / 117% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+9.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+8.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 38 games (+8.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.45 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Reese McGuire has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+8.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+8.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+10.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 away games (+8.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 68 games (+7.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 32 away games (+4.30 Units / 11% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 37 games at home (+11.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+8.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 57 games (+3.25 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.30 Units / 20% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 38-32 against the Run Line (+7.3 Units / 8.57% ROI).
- 39-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.25 Units / 4.55% ROI
- 31-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -12.25% ROI
- 37-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 3.4% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 35-35 against the Run Line (-5.4 Units / -5.86% ROI).
- 35-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.5 Units / -1.81% ROI
- 38-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.8 Units / 6.28% ROI
- 30-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.65 Units / -16.26% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 18% (91/515) versus Chris Bassitt in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 9% (5/55) against Chris Bassitt on curveballs in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to May 27th — Aaron Nola has the longest active streak at 11.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .198 (41-for-207) against Luis Severino since last season — 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: .239 — 89th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (195/345) against Brayan Bello since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (92/161) against Brayan Bello this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed a slugging percentage of just .224 (11 Total Bases / 49 ABs) over the last 14 days (2 games) — 2nd best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .411 — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 12% (10/83) against Brayan Bello this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are 27-43 (.386) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .201.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 11-8 (.579) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Yankees are 84-20 (.808) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are just 7-16 (.304) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 6-29 (.171) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Red Sox are 25-2 (.926) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have an OBP of just .296 (2,074 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Yankees hitters have drawn 217 walks in 2,047 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees are 16-3 (.842) against the run line (30.9% ROI) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .563.
The Yankees are batting just .217 with two outs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .341 (2,316 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Red Sox are batting .278 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .396 (268 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
The Red Sox are batting .279 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have an ERA of 3.42 (2078.2 IP) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.06.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .223 against Yankees pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 41% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Red Sox pitchers over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.18 (855.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.07.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 8 of 48 batters (17%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Head, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Toe, D10
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Ian Hamilton (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Yankees): Hip, D10
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